{ "ticker": { "uuid": "13c7867e-0bc2-46e6-a0a9-ed6b920a124e", "symbol": "RXI", "name": "ISHARES TRUST GLOBAL CONS DISC ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 74.992, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 41.182, "architecture_energy": 37.835, "architecture_maturity": 27.609, "architecture_confidence": 41.45, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.81, "rotation_up": 51.63, "upward_expansion": 44.23, "deceleration": 33.34, "rotation_down": 22.77, "downward_expansion": 20.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 198.919467, 196.958488, 196.52258, 196.05127 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 206.0144, "trend_reference": 197.122214, "distance_from_trend": 0.04511, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 176.253851, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.16885, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.967665, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.005566, "excess_performance": -0.120059, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.04511, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013321, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.16885, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009868, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.079677, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017824, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.005566, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.011821, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31744, "relative_activity": 0.734386, "balance": 1.011821, "dry_up": 1.880625, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030226, "annualized_volatility": 0.203286, "from_high_reference": -0.030925, "from_low_reference": 0.146553 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 197.122214, "fair_value_reference": 176.253851, "structural_low": 179.68147, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.021738, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.001557, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.151278, "worst_return": -0.120609, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.082838, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.020202, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.14576, "worst_return": -0.089798, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.053662, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.012979, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.151202, "worst_return": -0.019956, 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195.279858, 195.919556 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 188.51, "volume": 176987, "typical_volume": 41193.0, "trend": 197.42711, "fair_value": 175.579285, "relative_strength": -12.248597, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.794209, "energy": 38.657468, "activity_lines": [ 192.98146, 194.077633, 194.764271, 195.303791 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 200.28, "volume": 97580, "typical_volume": 43156.55, "trend": 197.281354, "fair_value": 175.8915, "relative_strength": -7.595287, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.387384, "energy": 5.153143, "activity_lines": [ 195.27824, 195.023257, 195.396909, 195.487848 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 206.0144, "volume": 31744, "typical_volume": 43225.25, "trend": 197.122214, "fair_value": 176.253851, "relative_strength": -7.967665, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.181741, "energy": 37.834865, "activity_lines": [ 198.919467, 196.958488, 196.52258, 196.05127 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }