{ "ticker": { "uuid": "13c919d0-df77-40c6-96ea-7607afb583c7", "symbol": "BAH", "name": "bet-at-home.com AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.13, "architecture_energy": 27.057, "architecture_maturity": 65.758, "architecture_confidence": 80.064, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.7, "rotation_up": 31.16, "upward_expansion": 59.02, "deceleration": 88.26, "rotation_down": 27.03, "downward_expansion": 20.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.231333, 3.269091, 3.144571, 2.97772 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.18, "trend_reference": 2.736333, "distance_from_trend": 0.162139, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.878974, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.10456, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.857332, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.574257, "excess_performance": 0.400011, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.162139, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.128385, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.10456, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.233372, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.018573, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.141604, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.574257, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.870625, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2545, "relative_activity": 6.546624, "balance": 0.870625, "dry_up": 2.680386, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093372, "annualized_volatility": 0.610623, "from_high_reference": -0.167539, "from_low_reference": 0.610127 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.736333, "fair_value_reference": 2.878974, "structural_low": 1.975, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.025926, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.111111, "median_excess_return": -0.060548, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.011407, "worst_return": -0.211931, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.214016, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.233309, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.057348, "worst_return": -0.284144, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.22093, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.416694, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.21147, "worst_return": -0.400314, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.419175, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.551304, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.215116, "worst_return": -0.623234, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.130814, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.159468, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.113725, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.18, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036789, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.057348, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011673, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.25188, "active": 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"2026-06-19", "close": 3.14, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 789.05, "trend": 2.506, "fair_value": 2.910385, "relative_strength": -4.351325, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.115955, "energy": 88.06652, "activity_lines": [ 3.249333, 3.056545, 2.823333, 2.668108 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 3.15, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 789.05, "trend": 2.531333, "fair_value": 2.90609, "relative_strength": -1.60892, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.091056, "energy": 80.73553, "activity_lines": [ 3.220667, 3.104364, 2.871667, 2.709656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 3.53, "volume": 1598, "typical_volume": 868.95, "trend": 2.567, "fair_value": 2.904423, "relative_strength": 8.073788, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.066913, "energy": 69.902501, "activity_lines": [ 3.308667, 3.210364, 2.95081, 2.774086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.44, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 868.95, "trend": 2.605, "fair_value": 2.902115, "relative_strength": 7.014365, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.97503, "energy": 62.374359, "activity_lines": [ 3.354, 3.280545, 3.014524, 2.830409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.26, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 399.65, "trend": 2.637333, "fair_value": 2.898013, "relative_strength": 3.768598, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.859522, "energy": 55.599032, "activity_lines": [ 3.339333, 3.299273, 3.05419, 2.872667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.23, "volume": 1598, "typical_volume": 260.25, "trend": 2.670667, "fair_value": 2.889295, "relative_strength": 1.79905, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.201464, "energy": 50.432831, "activity_lines": [ 3.314667, 3.300182, 3.089, 2.910903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.23, "volume": 25, "typical_volume": 261.5, "trend": 2.703667, "fair_value": 2.884103, "relative_strength": 2.279353, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.854659, "energy": 36.568652, "activity_lines": [ 3.284, 3.291273, 3.120952, 2.946989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.18, "volume": 2545, "typical_volume": 388.75, "trend": 2.736333, "fair_value": 2.878974, "relative_strength": -1.857332, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.129785, "energy": 27.056853, "activity_lines": [ 3.231333, 3.269091, 3.144571, 2.97772 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }