{ "ticker": { "uuid": "13cd37cc-ce15-4636-8ffa-a7f174afd540", "symbol": "FINX", "name": "Global X FinTech UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 94.372, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.832, "architecture_energy": 48.446, "architecture_maturity": 6.578, "architecture_confidence": 69.529, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.73, "rotation_up": 57.27, "upward_expansion": 82.42, "deceleration": 49.48, "rotation_down": 16.13, "downward_expansion": 9.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.0306, 6.967673, 6.873076, 6.795142 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.167, "trend_reference": 6.779033, "distance_from_trend": 0.05723, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.723891, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.0721, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.373806, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.102276, "excess_performance": -0.068616, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05723, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056878, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.0721, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039023, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.193738, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067308, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.102276, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.297609, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2644, "relative_activity": 0.568162, "balance": 0.297609, "dry_up": 1.010562, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042943, "annualized_volatility": 0.319428, "from_high_reference": -0.252893, "from_low_reference": 0.192909 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.779033, "fair_value_reference": 7.723891, "structural_low": 6.008, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.023544, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.017444, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.123414, "worst_return": -0.153863, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.053, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.053255, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.15864, "worst_return": -0.225683, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.020846, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.075026, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.10347, "worst_return": -0.308888, "sufficient": false }, { 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after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.553708, "energy": 38.87421, "activity_lines": [ 6.955867, 6.8632, 6.783662, 6.759546 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.007, "volume": 1173, "typical_volume": 4252.9, "trend": 6.847433, "fair_value": 7.717276, "relative_strength": -19.826778, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.196865, "energy": 48.3967, "activity_lines": [ 6.986333, 6.898582, 6.812767, 6.767613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.922, "volume": 11272, "typical_volume": 4619.25, "trend": 6.814867, "fair_value": 7.719179, "relative_strength": -20.54478, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.531699, "energy": 39.058208, "activity_lines": [ 6.976533, 6.912909, 6.831933, 6.772424 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.167, "volume": 2644, "typical_volume": 4653.6, "trend": 6.779033, "fair_value": 7.723891, "relative_strength": -19.373806, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.832355, "energy": 48.446327, "activity_lines": [ 7.0306, 6.967673, 6.873076, 6.795142 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }