{ "ticker": { "uuid": "13d1c583-fc7e-48d3-98e3-8d4d924c67f7", "symbol": "SB68", "name": "Sparebank 68\u00b0 Nord", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 73.69, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 10.609, "architecture_energy": 9.433, "architecture_maturity": 14.393, "architecture_confidence": 62.266, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.27, "rotation_up": 38.92, "upward_expansion": 25.35, "deceleration": 48.64, "rotation_down": 32.85, "downward_expansion": 32.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 208.580001, 209.135455, 209.321905, 209.866548 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 217.0, "trend_reference": 209.173482, "distance_from_trend": 0.037416, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 159.596613, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.359678, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.778523, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.120766, "excess_performance": -0.004228, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.037416, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044316, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.359678, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01605, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.007785, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022013, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.120766, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.285178, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 156, "relative_activity": 0.381932, "balance": 0.285178, "dry_up": 0.800588, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03195, "annualized_volatility": 0.244237, "from_high_reference": -0.056111, "from_low_reference": 0.339718 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 209.173482, "fair_value_reference": 159.596613, "structural_low": 186.020004, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.012274, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.016589, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.063091, "worst_return": -0.024242, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.011874, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012213, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.047377, "worst_return": -0.021212, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.034654, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.015184, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.211961, "worst_return": -0.010788, 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"modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.172894, "energy": 30.699528, "activity_lines": [ 205.563334, 207.495455, 208.797651, 209.319414 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 217.0, "volume": 156, "typical_volume": 408.45, "trend": 209.173482, "fair_value": 159.596613, "relative_strength": -0.778523, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.608928, "energy": 9.432774, "activity_lines": [ 208.580001, 209.135455, 209.321905, 209.866548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }