{ "ticker": { "uuid": "13d2acb1-3263-48ec-a49e-fab42fe5cd98", "symbol": "SIRCA", "name": "Sirca Paints India Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 74.322, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -4.225, "architecture_energy": 11.016, "architecture_maturity": 32.413, "architecture_confidence": 83.595, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.12, "rotation_up": 36.38, "upward_expansion": 22.68, "deceleration": 41.05, "rotation_down": 24.25, "downward_expansion": 61.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 418.381417, 410.98601, 414.854515, 420.665411 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 449.899994, "trend_reference": 431.717727, "distance_from_trend": 0.042116, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 380.982578, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.180894, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.529011, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.033512, "excess_performance": 0.010197, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.042116, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064331, "read": "Falling" 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383.107887, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.02215, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.018442, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.040022, "worst_return": -0.104299, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.139888, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.09455, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.27763, "worst_return": -0.049858, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.194651, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.109757, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.369679, "worst_return": -0.122817, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 391.516357, "volume": 1047512, "typical_volume": 1472078.25, "trend": 435.17606, "fair_value": 380.366737, "relative_strength": -10.569607, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.225809, "energy": 79.668102, "activity_lines": [ 393.00235, 400.5708, 411.635294, 420.486623 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 420.450012, "volume": 2131559, "typical_volume": 1532577.5, "trend": 432.402727, "fair_value": 380.554284, "relative_strength": -6.349358, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.033877, "energy": 45.401076, "activity_lines": [ 401.296903, 403.111134, 411.86681, 419.536555 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 449.899994, "volume": 2444786, "typical_volume": 1570395.2, "trend": 431.717727, "fair_value": 380.982578, "relative_strength": -0.529011, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.225324, "energy": 11.015919, "activity_lines": [ 418.381417, 410.98601, 414.854515, 420.665411 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }