{ "ticker": { "uuid": "13da0f6c-bc37-456e-99be-8e0627a27770", "symbol": "MFIN", "name": "Medallion Financial Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 64.758, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.198, "architecture_energy": 52.703, "architecture_maturity": 15.294, "architecture_confidence": 82.443, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.69, "rotation_up": 55.68, "upward_expansion": 79.57, "deceleration": 54.09, "rotation_down": 19.05, "downward_expansion": 8.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.231333, 10.106182, 9.841167, 9.655919 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.9, "trend_reference": 9.558007, "distance_from_trend": 0.140405, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.46874, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.287086, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.644623, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.084961, "excess_performance": -0.102492, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.140405, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.287086, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.127424, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.016446, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.147865, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.084961, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.293528, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 515964, "relative_activity": 1.482448, "balance": 1.293528, "dry_up": 0.725025, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058048, "annualized_volatility": 0.33419, "from_high_reference": -0.013575, "from_low_reference": 0.409259 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.558007, "fair_value_reference": 8.46874, "structural_low": 7.734559, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.001236, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.026808, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.06619, "worst_return": -0.183071, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.075146, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.059601, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.032299, "worst_return": -0.258472, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.023154, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.040184, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.204553, "worst_return": -0.189198, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.77, "volume": 178347, "typical_volume": 352125.45, "trend": 9.522416, "fair_value": 8.438573, "relative_strength": -7.41604, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.730968, "energy": 32.605105, "activity_lines": [ 9.946, 9.897273, 9.640558, 9.540207 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.94, "volume": 142051, "typical_volume": 346670.75, "trend": 9.52405, "fair_value": 8.445687, "relative_strength": -5.969679, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.799737, "energy": 24.562852, "activity_lines": [ 9.916667, 9.919091, 9.697185, 9.567148 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.9, "volume": 515964, "typical_volume": 348048.7, "trend": 9.558007, "fair_value": 8.46874, "relative_strength": -1.644623, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.198278, "energy": 52.703405, "activity_lines": [ 10.231333, 10.106182, 9.841167, 9.655919 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }