{ "ticker": { "uuid": "13dfd3bc-c6ba-4293-bf3f-588fe2695551", "symbol": "XRO", "name": "Xero Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.538, "architecture_energy": 31.979, "architecture_maturity": 98.224, "architecture_confidence": 88.682, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.34, "rotation_up": 24.41, "upward_expansion": 5.78, "deceleration": 53.59, "rotation_down": 42.79, "downward_expansion": 72.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 70.692, 70.837091, 73.232904, 74.93 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 76.559998, "trend_reference": 78.451999, "distance_from_trend": -0.024117, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 130.483781, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.41326, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.467668, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.063601, "excess_performance": -0.127306, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.024117, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.165928, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.41326, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036458, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.304677, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063646, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.063601, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.393431, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3425396, "relative_activity": 1.033676, "balance": 0.393431, "dry_up": 1.13831, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087498, "annualized_volatility": 0.481842, "from_high_reference": -0.569863, "from_low_reference": 0.245891 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 78.451999, "fair_value_reference": 130.483781, "structural_low": 61.450001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.031142, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.037697, "regime_survival": 0.88, "best_return": 0.207505, "worst_return": -0.290842, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.159953, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.154615, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.289574, "worst_return": -0.328735, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.176859, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.168509, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.7411, "worst_return": -0.459447, "sufficient": true }, { 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"direction": -81.943197, "energy": 69.010648, "activity_lines": [ 68.035335, 70.325819, 73.556476, 75.821118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 70.0, "volume": 4021405, "typical_volume": 3328512.7, "trend": 79.481999, "fair_value": 130.744487, "relative_strength": -35.648, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.927312, "energy": 48.500731, "activity_lines": [ 68.302001, 69.932001, 73.057238, 75.118516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 76.559998, "volume": 3425396, "typical_volume": 3313801.7, "trend": 78.451999, "fair_value": 130.483781, "relative_strength": -30.467668, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.537927, "energy": 31.978774, "activity_lines": [ 70.692, 70.837091, 73.232904, 74.93 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }