{ "ticker": { "uuid": "13e16792-3979-4342-a428-9594e2e6cdc0", "symbol": "RFG", "name": "Retail Food Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 58.288, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 22.459, "architecture_energy": 33.343, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 43.0, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.66, "rotation_up": 46.68, "upward_expansion": 33.62, "deceleration": 49.54, "rotation_down": 14.04, "downward_expansion": 44.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.882667, 0.836364, 0.797333, 0.844054 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.985, "trend_reference": 0.948333, "distance_from_trend": 0.038664, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.037628, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.516595, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.502816, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.172269, "excess_performance": -0.235975, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.038664, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.20297, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.516595, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.149918, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.205028, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.304677, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.172269, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.781405, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 286697, "relative_activity": 1.543296, "balance": 1.781405, "dry_up": 0.891057, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081609, "annualized_volatility": 0.637954, "from_high_reference": -0.560268, "from_low_reference": 0.758929 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.948333, "fair_value_reference": 2.037628, "structural_low": 0.56, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.037736, "positive_rate": 0.324324, "directional_follow_through": 0.675676, "median_excess_return": -0.032328, "regime_survival": 0.837838, "best_return": 0.44186, "worst_return": -0.322034, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.014286, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.040403, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.292683, "worst_return": -0.431818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.238845, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.246873, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.357143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.023016, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.024897, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.338983, "worst_return": -0.482143, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.014085, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.075949, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.114286, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.078947, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040816, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015267, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.128205, 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"down", "direction": -34.476298, "energy": 26.06811, "activity_lines": [ 0.798, 0.754636, 0.780905, 0.86328 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.845, "volume": 234525, "typical_volume": 191174.6, "trend": 0.987833, "fair_value": 2.054936, "relative_strength": -30.437344, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.754229, "energy": 24.923502, "activity_lines": [ 0.813667, 0.776636, 0.781071, 0.852699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.835, "volume": 68806, "typical_volume": 179115.15, "trend": 0.966167, "fair_value": 2.046186, "relative_strength": -31.587875, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.025665, "energy": 19.183799, "activity_lines": [ 0.826, 0.794455, 0.7815, 0.842839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.985, "volume": 286697, "typical_volume": 185769.3, "trend": 0.948333, "fair_value": 2.037628, "relative_strength": -20.502816, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 22.458751, "energy": 33.343461, "activity_lines": [ 0.882667, 0.836364, 0.797333, 0.844054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }