{ "ticker": { "uuid": "13e21088-40fe-48ce-9014-9d454e80ac87", "symbol": "IAPD", "name": "iShares Asia Pacific Dividend UCITS ETF", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 83.21, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.038, "architecture_energy": 87.688, "architecture_maturity": 6.845, "architecture_confidence": 68.484, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.38, "rotation_up": 84.1, "upward_expansion": 94.64, "deceleration": 41.86, "rotation_down": 8.07, "downward_expansion": 18.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.963999, 31.313572, 31.068024, 30.894176 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 32.494999, "trend_reference": 30.639511, "distance_from_trend": 0.060559, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.277669, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.395973, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.095813, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.073871, "excess_performance": -0.009012, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.060559, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045823, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.395973, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025661, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.020958, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116642, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.073871, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.51451, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15751, "relative_activity": 0.430947, "balance": 1.51451, "dry_up": 0.669438, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019809, "annualized_volatility": 0.158712, "from_high_reference": -0.001383, "from_low_reference": 0.31389 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.639511, "fair_value_reference": 23.277669, "structural_low": 28.856531, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.013539, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.002496, "regime_survival": 0.72, "best_return": 0.079097, "worst_return": -0.067797, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.047129, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.004686, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.142295, "worst_return": -0.057381, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.060689, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.035563, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.213557, "worst_return": -0.075175, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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30.32455, "fair_value": 23.092435, "relative_strength": 0.962149, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.680171, "energy": 37.007604, "activity_lines": [ 30.931, 30.685679, 30.728105, 30.631591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.389999, "volume": 27103, "typical_volume": 37146.75, "trend": 30.490381, "fair_value": 23.184331, "relative_strength": 3.3176, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.137953, "energy": 76.471881, "activity_lines": [ 31.519666, 31.002379, 30.899451, 30.764846 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.494999, "volume": 15751, "typical_volume": 36549.7, "trend": 30.639511, "fair_value": 23.277669, "relative_strength": 2.095813, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.037521, "energy": 87.688371, "activity_lines": [ 31.963999, 31.313572, 31.068024, 30.894176 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }