{ "ticker": { "uuid": "13f1de11-a1e1-43dc-a16f-fcfc054a507a", "symbol": "VAXXA", "name": "Vaxxa AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.507, "architecture_energy": 32.903, "architecture_maturity": 58.44, "architecture_confidence": 95.491, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.42, "rotation_up": 27.76, "upward_expansion": 9.28, "deceleration": 34.81, "rotation_down": 40.6, "downward_expansion": 73.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.4634, 0.463655, 0.489776, 0.518389 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.456, "trend_reference": 0.563533, "distance_from_trend": -0.19082, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.868346, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.474863, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.749301, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.33913, "excess_performance": -0.400625, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.19082, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073847, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.474863, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082409, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.307493, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019622, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.33913, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.605842, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 141605, "relative_activity": 0.676377, "balance": 0.605842, "dry_up": 0.785075, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.137652, "annualized_volatility": 0.607397, "from_high_reference": -0.495575, "from_low_reference": 0.16624 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.563533, "fair_value_reference": 0.868346, "structural_low": 0.391, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.072289, "positive_rate": 0.342857, "directional_follow_through": 0.657143, "median_excess_return": -0.05881, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 1.181823, "worst_return": -0.560001, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.188633, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.130783, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 2.120257, "worst_return": -0.691489, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.285171, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.244072, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.835445, "worst_return": -0.882979, "sufficient": true }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.174312, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.209459, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.065574, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.106838, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.282474, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-01", 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0.494, "volume": 101343, "typical_volume": 252407.0, "trend": 0.577867, "fair_value": 0.878615, "relative_strength": -24.251859, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.736568, "energy": 34.790479, "activity_lines": [ 0.473133, 0.473618, 0.505738, 0.534699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.442, "volume": 55283, "typical_volume": 214086.45, "trend": 0.572933, "fair_value": 0.872474, "relative_strength": -32.292083, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.506184, "energy": 37.21436, "activity_lines": [ 0.4654, 0.466927, 0.496805, 0.525933 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.456, "volume": 141605, "typical_volume": 209358.0, "trend": 0.563533, "fair_value": 0.868346, "relative_strength": -30.749301, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.506859, "energy": 32.902893, "activity_lines": [ 0.4634, 0.463655, 0.489776, 0.518389 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }