{ "ticker": { "uuid": "13fae7cc-0923-471d-8ca4-a1291c323f95", "symbol": "603156", "name": "Hebei Yangyuan ZhiHui Beverage Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 50.223, "architecture_energy": 27.139, "architecture_maturity": 75.464, "architecture_confidence": 94.838, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.88, "rotation_up": 30.55, "upward_expansion": 56.35, "deceleration": 88.28, "rotation_down": 36.23, "downward_expansion": 22.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.569333, 42.156727, 41.390426, 39.218692 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 48.349998, "trend_reference": 36.667541, "distance_from_trend": 0.318605, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.457975, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.97686, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 51.962187, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.526681, "excess_performance": 0.569885, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.318605, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.160456, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.97686, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.222835, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.519622, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.154733, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.526681, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.412336, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 76164127, "relative_activity": 1.578793, "balance": 1.412336, "dry_up": 1.32284, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.123335, "annualized_volatility": 0.616876, "from_high_reference": -0.065534, "from_low_reference": 1.345698 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.667541, "fair_value_reference": 24.457975, "structural_low": 28.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.005371, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.024834, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.274131, "worst_return": -0.102376, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.073988, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.000862, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.295422, "worst_return": -0.209503, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.239238, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.08133, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.793011, "worst_return": -0.260282, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"relative_strength": 48.124841, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.297431, "energy": 55.459266, "activity_lines": [ 45.338666, 44.223177, 40.612592, 38.094358 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.41, "volume": 58514188, "typical_volume": 44326087.75, "trend": 35.252874, "fair_value": 24.086149, "relative_strength": 20.542267, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.52294, "energy": 26.079631, "activity_lines": [ 42.201333, 42.742807, 40.428896, 38.124947 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.75, "volume": 57904319, "typical_volume": 45671954.2, "trend": 35.609874, "fair_value": 24.184516, "relative_strength": 22.369823, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.68962, "energy": 17.994128, "activity_lines": [ 39.908, 41.586094, 40.348628, 38.221536 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.73, "volume": 62683167, "typical_volume": 46844345.35, "trend": 36.014207, "fair_value": 24.290634, "relative_strength": 27.091124, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.289548, "energy": 21.642404, "activity_lines": [ 38.87, 40.951537, 40.430789, 38.422834 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.349998, "volume": 76164127, "typical_volume": 48242010.05, "trend": 36.667541, "fair_value": 24.457975, "relative_strength": 51.962187, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.223037, "energy": 27.138771, "activity_lines": [ 41.569333, 42.156727, 41.390426, 39.218692 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }