{ "ticker": { "uuid": "13fd134c-1d50-49e8-9224-77f8ee22c647", "symbol": "INOV", "name": "INNOVATOR ETFS TRUST INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPED POWER BUFFER ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 56.428, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.359, "architecture_energy": 74.498, "architecture_maturity": 34.357, "architecture_confidence": 67.653, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.32, "rotation_up": 69.41, "upward_expansion": 88.19, "deceleration": 47.6, "rotation_down": 15.96, "downward_expansion": 14.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.29642, 37.034527, 36.685206, 36.353875 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 37.98, "trend_reference": 36.01846, "distance_from_trend": 0.054459, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.169294, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.218507, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.284407, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.056467, "excess_performance": -0.069158, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.054459, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025602, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.218507, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033285, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032844, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013773, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.056467, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.186242, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4136, "relative_activity": 0.108536, "balance": 0.186242, "dry_up": 2.839288, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016107, "annualized_volatility": 0.112654, "from_high_reference": -0.000263, "from_low_reference": 0.167897 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.01846, "fair_value_reference": 31.169294, "structural_low": 33.89, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.01118, "positive_rate": 0.733333, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.006523, "regime_survival": 0.933333, "best_return": 0.040243, "worst_return": -0.046737, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.046324, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.025711, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.068284, "worst_return": 0.009694, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.080441, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.070243, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.082242, "worst_return": 0.07864, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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36.494078, 36.121203, 35.916714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 36.8949, "volume": 4029, "typical_volume": 24152.25, "trend": 35.677963, "fair_value": 30.99925, "relative_strength": -4.103965, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.406609, "energy": 62.39445, "activity_lines": [ 36.767973, 36.590822, 36.222164, 36.001167 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 36.6759, "volume": 401541, "typical_volume": 43079.6, "trend": 35.758273, "fair_value": 31.039227, "relative_strength": -3.088711, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.518583, "energy": 43.704927, "activity_lines": [ 36.750507, 36.63056, 36.299718, 36.06555 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.69, "volume": 5169, "typical_volume": 42280.6, "trend": 35.83063, "fair_value": 31.078743, "relative_strength": -2.405546, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.960099, "energy": 43.666416, "activity_lines": [ 36.732467, 36.666, 36.377681, 36.125662 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.3074, "volume": 21941, "typical_volume": 43091.6, "trend": 35.91946, "fair_value": 31.121997, "relative_strength": -1.76238, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.640277, "energy": 51.394878, "activity_lines": [ 36.93156, 36.797904, 36.506104, 36.220937 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.98, "volume": 4136, "typical_volume": 38107.0, "trend": 36.01846, "fair_value": 31.169294, "relative_strength": -3.284407, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.359459, "energy": 74.497798, "activity_lines": [ 37.29642, 37.034527, 36.685206, 36.353875 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }