{ "ticker": { "uuid": "13fe819c-48e2-4afa-93ea-8085cc9492e3", "symbol": "DATA", "name": "Datrix S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -33.57, "architecture_energy": 49.775, "architecture_maturity": 10.344, "architecture_confidence": 84.396, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.14, "rotation_up": 17.67, "upward_expansion": 25.97, "deceleration": 48.0, "rotation_down": 69.3, "downward_expansion": 53.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.561, 1.622, 1.668762, 1.667011 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.49, "trend_reference": 1.6635, "distance_from_trend": -0.104298, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.560769, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.045343, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.194593, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.08589, "excess_performance": -0.256781, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.104298, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011097, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.045343, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132032, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.211946, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.245696, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.08589, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.515385, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 45500, "relative_activity": 0.573951, "balance": 0.515385, "dry_up": 2.078209, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094992, "annualized_volatility": 0.409629, "from_high_reference": -0.243655, "from_low_reference": 0.295652 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.6635, "fair_value_reference": 1.560769, "structural_low": 1.385, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.130435, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034615, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.215859, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006623, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009288, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00578, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.046784, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034483, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017804, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.106583, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037249, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.088398, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.08, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.54, "volume": 22000, "typical_volume": 130375.0, "trend": 2.4565, "fair_value": 2.920939, "relative_strength": -6.482409, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.642807, "energy": 30.928184, "activity_lines": [ 2.582667, 2.544727, 2.48381, 2.480237 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 2.36, "volume": 86000, "typical_volume": 86725.0, "trend": 2.4585, "fair_value": 2.914775, "relative_strength": -13.667197, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.490832, "energy": 8.205597, "activity_lines": [ 2.489333, 2.521455, 2.471429, 2.474011 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 2.34, "volume": 83500, "typical_volume": 84825.0, "trend": 2.456833, "fair_value": 2.908527, "relative_strength": -15.050723, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.971003, "energy": 16.693238, "activity_lines": [ 2.424, 2.494545, 2.459333, 2.466366 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 2.26, "volume": 61000, "typical_volume": 83300.0, "trend": 2.452667, "fair_value": 2.901554, "relative_strength": -16.39401, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.784167, "energy": 25.909683, "activity_lines": [ 2.356, 2.452, 2.441048, 2.453667 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-15", "close": 2.2, "volume": 109500, "typical_volume": 84600.0, "trend": 2.447, "fair_value": 2.89409, "relative_strength": -19.946281, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.984733, "energy": 52.279594, "activity_lines": [ 2.288, 2.399273, 2.418667, 2.437366 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-22", "close": 2.16, "volume": 38500, "typical_volume": 85875.0, "trend": 2.4405, "fair_value": 2.886363, "relative_strength": -19.980956, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.205075, "energy": 64.334622, "activity_lines": [ 2.228, 2.341091, 2.394095, 2.418849 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-29", "close": 1.98, "volume": 144500, "typical_volume": 92075.0, "trend": 2.43, "fair_value": 2.876922, "relative_strength": -25.211158, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.424238, 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{ "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 1.67, "volume": 18000, "typical_volume": 56300.0, "trend": 1.68, "fair_value": 1.597468, "relative_strength": -7.271907, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.601089, "energy": 36.317478, "activity_lines": [ 1.744667, 1.741636, 1.711095, 1.691301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.605, "volume": 25000, "typical_volume": 50650.0, "trend": 1.6725, "fair_value": 1.593013, "relative_strength": -13.477952, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.272004, "energy": 8.636338, "activity_lines": [ 1.696333, 1.717, 1.70481, 1.686462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.81, "volume": 343000, "typical_volume": 63500.0, "trend": 1.676167, "fair_value": 1.588974, "relative_strength": -2.218668, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.347511, "energy": 21.43963, "activity_lines": [ 1.722, 1.731727, 1.71731, 1.695333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.65, "volume": 261500, "typical_volume": 65925.0, "trend": 1.676333, "fair_value": 1.58109, "relative_strength": -9.705129, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.184715, "energy": 13.443184, "activity_lines": [ 1.694333, 1.716273, 1.713095, 1.693645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.625, "volume": 223000, "typical_volume": 74250.0, "trend": 1.677167, "fair_value": 1.574199, "relative_strength": -11.010528, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.839073, "energy": 16.134981, "activity_lines": [ 1.669, 1.698364, 1.706667, 1.690333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.495, "volume": 129000, "typical_volume": 78225.0, "trend": 1.669333, "fair_value": 1.567372, "relative_strength": -18.628012, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.185641, "energy": 35.25491, "activity_lines": [ 1.61, 1.659, 1.687571, 1.678581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.49, "volume": 45500, "typical_volume": 79275.0, "trend": 1.6635, "fair_value": 1.560769, "relative_strength": -21.194593, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.569757, "energy": 49.775108, "activity_lines": [ 1.561, 1.622, 1.668762, 1.667011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }