{ "ticker": { "uuid": "14034870-8d2b-4b6e-abff-a4f7ea3c388d", "symbol": "METE", "name": "Franklin AI, Metaverse and Blockchain UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 21.425, "architecture_energy": 22.12, "architecture_maturity": 71.526, "architecture_confidence": 74.907, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.51, "rotation_up": 21.99, "upward_expansion": 49.01, "deceleration": 85.03, "rotation_down": 37.94, "downward_expansion": 29.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.033666, 46.711, 46.816429, 45.35172 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 47.380001, "trend_reference": 43.806333, "distance_from_trend": 0.081579, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.269712, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.271274, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.073597, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.200557, "excess_performance": 0.029666, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.081579, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022616, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.271274, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053047, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.080736, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067949, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.200557, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.887176, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 647, "relative_activity": 0.645354, "balance": 0.887176, "dry_up": 1.733829, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045865, "annualized_volatility": 0.301861, "from_high_reference": -0.088846, "from_low_reference": 0.339175 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.806333, "fair_value_reference": 37.269712, "structural_low": 35.380001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.013944, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.034908, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.0413, "worst_return": -0.152062, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.054927, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.002871, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.064601, "worst_return": -0.12883, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.130818, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.052695, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.155446, "worst_return": 0.083191, "sufficient": false }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.180113, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025967, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029881, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.032728, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117312, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", 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67.847992, "energy": 85.712649, "activity_lines": [ 49.477334, 47.771364, 44.405619, 43.584667 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 49.485001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1612.85, "trend": 43.340667, "fair_value": 36.412821, "relative_strength": -3.679585, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.107293, "energy": 79.027266, "activity_lines": [ 49.564001, 48.433364, 45.0755, 43.997581 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 46.775002, "volume": 50, "typical_volume": 1531.15, "trend": 43.4095, "fair_value": 36.541538, "relative_strength": -6.044813, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.303116, "energy": 53.867358, "activity_lines": [ 48.593335, 48.398182, 45.453, 44.219151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 47.490002, "volume": 197, "typical_volume": 1005.85, "trend": 43.465667, "fair_value": 36.673494, "relative_strength": -7.251494, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.466761, "energy": 41.498708, "activity_lines": [ 48.001668, 48.410183, 45.863786, 44.482409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 48.049999, "volume": 113, "typical_volume": 983.75, "trend": 43.587334, "fair_value": 36.800385, "relative_strength": -5.650272, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.368065, "energy": 36.812339, "activity_lines": [ 47.874668, 48.432546, 46.287762, 44.778172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 47.259998, "volume": 353, "typical_volume": 990.7, "trend": 43.700667, "fair_value": 36.923429, "relative_strength": -5.692616, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.926681, "energy": 29.470925, "activity_lines": [ 47.600333, 48.208455, 46.595, 45.015118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.064999, "volume": 5492, "typical_volume": 993.05, "trend": 43.747333, "fair_value": 37.029006, "relative_strength": -9.719117, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.267257, "energy": 24.552264, "activity_lines": [ 46.684666, 47.580546, 46.653619, 45.10314 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.959999, "volume": 461, "typical_volume": 976.3, "trend": 43.739667, "fair_value": 37.133846, "relative_strength": -12.321192, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.125802, "energy": 19.451064, "activity_lines": [ 45.695332, 46.790091, 46.582476, 45.11686 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.380001, "volume": 647, "typical_volume": 1002.55, "trend": 43.806333, "fair_value": 37.269712, "relative_strength": -8.073597, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.424792, "energy": 22.119908, "activity_lines": [ 46.033666, 46.711, 46.816429, 45.35172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }