{ "ticker": { "uuid": "14054f4c-3e5a-4015-9f90-d701269d27a5", "symbol": "POLN", "name": "Pollen Street Group Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 82.856, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 4.719, "architecture_energy": 3.946, "architecture_maturity": 28.796, "architecture_confidence": 54.241, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 66.59, "rotation_up": 31.48, "upward_expansion": 29.11, "deceleration": 54.93, "rotation_down": 30.67, "downward_expansion": 24.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 849.066667, 850.690909, 848.765233, 842.192038 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 842.0, "trend_reference": 844.985956, "distance_from_trend": -0.003534, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 747.06651, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.127075, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.999858, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.078434, "excess_performance": -0.12967, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003534, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029055, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.127075, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030932, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.109999, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037252, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.078434, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.303467, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 756500, "relative_activity": 2.054304, "balance": 0.303467, "dry_up": 0.903793, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049611, "annualized_volatility": 0.307372, "from_high_reference": -0.133425, "from_low_reference": 0.22074 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 844.985956, "fair_value_reference": 747.06651, "structural_low": 689.745363, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.007634, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": -0.005618, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.062857, "worst_return": -0.103789, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.026826, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.005249, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.140033, "worst_return": -0.050053, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.031079, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.021196, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.186161, "worst_return": -0.232262, "sufficient": 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18.566006, "energy": 11.632072, "activity_lines": [ 854.4, 852.545455, 848.462533, 842.573189 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 842.0, "volume": 756500, "typical_volume": 368251.2, "trend": 844.985956, "fair_value": 747.06651, "relative_strength": -10.999858, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.718602, "energy": 3.945751, "activity_lines": [ 849.066667, 850.690909, 848.765233, 842.192038 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }