{ "ticker": { "uuid": "14150606-e12c-4b0f-8644-8dc1d34bf3cf", "symbol": "VIBE", "name": "Vibe Synergy Group Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.294, "architecture_energy": 78.215, "architecture_maturity": 45.001, "architecture_confidence": 86.116, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.9, "rotation_up": 12.39, "upward_expansion": 17.63, "deceleration": 37.46, "rotation_down": 77.31, "downward_expansion": 95.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.3, 0.315455, 0.336667, 0.354086 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.29, "trend_reference": 0.380333, "distance_from_trend": -0.237511, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.977179, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.703227, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -37.489003, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.275, "excess_performance": -0.467325, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.237511, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115504, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.703227, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001786, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.37489, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.215974, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.275, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.787525, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 201000, "relative_activity": 1.459589, "balance": 0.787525, "dry_up": 1.737891, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119363, "annualized_volatility": 0.301268, "from_high_reference": -0.560606, "from_low_reference": 0.115385 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.380333, "fair_value_reference": 0.977179, "structural_low": 0.26, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.07803, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.089518, "regime_survival": 0.95, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.3125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.228571, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.170944, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.685185, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.264706, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.093588, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.6, "worst_return": -0.757143, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.190714, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.257841, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.44, "worst_return": -0.821429, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.771429, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.175, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.244898, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.194444, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.46, "volume": 29900, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 3.34, 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"2026-07-17", "close": 0.3, "volume": 335100, "typical_volume": 128040.0, "trend": 0.399333, "fair_value": 1.040385, "relative_strength": -36.813219, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.958741, "energy": 70.322705, "activity_lines": [ 0.325333, 0.338182, 0.355429, 0.372086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.32, "volume": 299600, "typical_volume": 137445.0, "trend": 0.393333, "fair_value": 1.01859, "relative_strength": -32.707272, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.983572, "energy": 64.497301, "activity_lines": [ 0.321333, 0.333273, 0.350571, 0.366968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.29, "volume": 121600, "typical_volume": 135985.0, "trend": 0.386333, "fair_value": 0.997372, "relative_strength": -38.217501, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.001691, "energy": 76.017608, "activity_lines": [ 0.308667, 0.323636, 0.343333, 0.360301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.29, "volume": 201000, "typical_volume": 137710.0, "trend": 0.380333, "fair_value": 0.977179, "relative_strength": -37.489003, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.29388, "energy": 78.215006, "activity_lines": [ 0.3, 0.315455, 0.336667, 0.354086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }