{ "ticker": { "uuid": "14161fcf-27d6-4328-b32d-2f5d8af98520", "symbol": "5015", "name": "Rodex Fasteners Corp.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.785, "architecture_energy": 42.687, "architecture_maturity": 61.476, "architecture_confidence": 91.871, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.31, "rotation_up": 21.37, "upward_expansion": 5.52, "deceleration": 54.96, "rotation_down": 53.78, "downward_expansion": 78.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.49, 21.711124, 22.213763, 22.939906 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 21.799999, "trend_reference": 24.16892, "distance_from_trend": -0.098015, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 32.994659, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.339287, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -41.522092, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.232476, "excess_performance": -0.673848, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.098015, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066015, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.339287, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029313, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.415221, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08095, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.232476, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.161829, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 169264, "relative_activity": 0.99395, "balance": 1.161829, "dry_up": 0.618439, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065739, "annualized_volatility": 0.19055, "from_high_reference": -0.30756, "from_low_reference": 0.063415 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.16892, "fair_value_reference": 32.994659, "structural_low": 20.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.013051, "positive_rate": 0.366667, "directional_follow_through": 0.633333, "median_excess_return": -0.046794, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.077652, "worst_return": -0.107774, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.056322, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.1409, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.039616, "worst_return": -0.177562, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.14498, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.199805, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.035797, "worst_return": -0.209964, "sufficient": true }, { 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33.294066, "relative_strength": -43.487417, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.927653, "energy": 63.62472, "activity_lines": [ 21.64392, 22.215469, 22.671153, 23.527718 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.200001, "volume": 103000, "typical_volume": 176199.95, "trend": 24.516496, "fair_value": 33.194652, "relative_strength": -41.928818, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.397939, "energy": 67.00468, "activity_lines": [ 21.415702, 21.978385, 22.470916, 23.301098 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.450001, "volume": 68001, "typical_volume": 169348.0, "trend": 24.331986, "fair_value": 33.094635, "relative_strength": -41.548949, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.532302, "energy": 55.989298, "activity_lines": [ 21.356667, 21.792392, 22.315986, 23.10326 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 21.799999, "volume": 169264, "typical_volume": 170294.2, "trend": 24.16892, "fair_value": 32.994659, "relative_strength": -41.522092, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.785067, "energy": 42.68744, "activity_lines": [ 21.49, 21.711124, 22.213763, 22.939906 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }