{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1417783f-4f97-4e9a-a77a-907238a4185b", "symbol": "BNGO", "name": "Bionano Genomics, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -76.846, "architecture_energy": 80.047, "architecture_maturity": 24.327, "architecture_confidence": 89.474, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.37, "rotation_up": 13.4, "upward_expansion": 17.84, "deceleration": 37.68, "rotation_down": 72.1, "downward_expansion": 91.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.472, 19.774727, 20.460238, 20.66071 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 19.09, "trend_reference": 21.308, "distance_from_trend": -0.104092, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 600.133204, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.96819, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -36.362446, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.17, "excess_performance": -0.115333, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.104092, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126841, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.96819, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011731, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.363624, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.147057, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.17, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.392933, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.392933, "dry_up": 0.729367, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037555, "annualized_volatility": 0.411931, "from_high_reference": -0.796828, "from_low_reference": 0.004737 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.308, "fair_value_reference": 600.133204, "structural_low": 19.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 46, "median_return": -0.123186, "positive_rate": 0.23913, "directional_follow_through": 0.73913, "median_excess_return": -0.115129, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.416613, "worst_return": -0.492386, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.36213, "positive_rate": 0.071429, "directional_follow_through": 0.928571, "median_excess_return": -0.359049, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.005003, "worst_return": -0.701258, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.593361, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.673772, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.302431, "worst_return": -0.782805, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "orange", "start": "2022-12-30", "end": "2023-01-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.079861, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-01-13", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.997077, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054054, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.323529, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.076233, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.054951, 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"direction": -52.806129, "energy": 29.580504, "activity_lines": [ 21.186667, 21.436727, 21.230524, 21.930194 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 19.92, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 202.2, "trend": 23.246, "fair_value": 815.913012, "relative_strength": -45.667856, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.044917, "energy": 47.055317, "activity_lines": [ 20.653333, 21.122545, 21.123048, 21.693957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 19.99, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 193.7, "trend": 22.879, "fair_value": 777.194999, "relative_strength": -43.554914, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.81525, "energy": 60.962037, "activity_lines": [ 20.248667, 20.877091, 21.036905, 21.483892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 20.09, "volume": 12, "typical_volume": 169.0, "trend": 22.532, "fair_value": 734.823781, "relative_strength": -40.800733, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.250871, "energy": 64.174446, "activity_lines": [ 20.078, 20.675455, 20.961524, 21.303957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.09, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 143.0, "trend": 22.168333, "fair_value": 695.721794, "relative_strength": -38.77589, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.679654, "energy": 69.00063, "activity_lines": [ 20.054667, 20.490364, 20.884524, 21.146409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.0, "volume": 130, "typical_volume": 137.0, "trend": 21.908333, "fair_value": 657.965384, "relative_strength": -36.569261, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.462531, "energy": 63.116851, "activity_lines": [ 20.035333, 20.341455, 20.798476, 21.006516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.09, "volume": 250, "typical_volume": 147.6, "trend": 21.631667, "fair_value": 626.164679, "relative_strength": -38.207451, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.145021, "energy": 66.404422, "activity_lines": [ 19.726, 20.036182, 20.627429, 20.824688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.09, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 130.25, "trend": 21.308, "fair_value": 600.133204, "relative_strength": -36.362446, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.845854, "energy": 80.046594, "activity_lines": [ 19.472, 19.774727, 20.460238, 20.66071 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }