{ "ticker": { "uuid": "141d8e79-6373-4595-a967-a8c9f6dc5190", "symbol": "COPX", "name": "Global X Copper Miners UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 94.331, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 1.108, "architecture_energy": 2.758, "architecture_maturity": 15.649, "architecture_confidence": 76.154, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 77.55, "rotation_up": 21.05, "upward_expansion": 19.62, "deceleration": 44.46, "rotation_down": 30.72, "downward_expansion": 55.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 55.15, 54.571454, 55.082714, 55.010752 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 59.68, "trend_reference": 55.185833, "distance_from_trend": 0.081437, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.899615, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.710047, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.859786, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.07107, "excess_performance": -0.099822, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.081437, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067724, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.710047, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03351, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.058598, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.137757, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.07107, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.514435, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 124680, "relative_activity": 1.304158, "balance": 0.514435, "dry_up": 0.743136, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066869, "annualized_volatility": 0.446877, "from_high_reference": -0.081846, "from_low_reference": 0.99332 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 55.185833, "fair_value_reference": 34.899615, "structural_low": 45.125, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.010024, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.020486, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.138076, "worst_return": -0.074882, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.02621, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.103878, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.29603, "worst_return": -0.11392, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.046498, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.196027, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.158338, "worst_return": -0.08814, "sufficient": false 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34.182276, "relative_strength": -3.036573, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.003526, "energy": 18.157737, "activity_lines": [ 53.891334, 55.183818, 55.117714, 55.084161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 50.259998, "volume": 62347, "typical_volume": 136866.1, "trend": 54.539833, "fair_value": 34.339359, "relative_strength": -5.930199, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.338439, "energy": 40.190161, "activity_lines": [ 52.346, 54.167818, 54.668023, 54.817623 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 54.16, "volume": 43189, "typical_volume": 121983.9, "trend": 54.7615, "fair_value": 34.511667, "relative_strength": 0.913899, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.549167, "energy": 38.218948, "activity_lines": [ 52.629333, 53.974909, 54.651904, 54.793118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 53.389999, "volume": 53965, "typical_volume": 111386.65, "trend": 54.935166, "fair_value": 34.682019, "relative_strength": -1.802022, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.530153, "energy": 43.445187, "activity_lines": [ 52.864666, 53.678545, 54.569785, 54.704634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 59.68, "volume": 124680, "typical_volume": 95601.9, "trend": 55.185833, "fair_value": 34.899615, "relative_strength": 5.859786, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.107645, "energy": 2.757973, "activity_lines": [ 55.15, 54.571454, 55.082714, 55.010752 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }