{ "ticker": { "uuid": "141e4ffd-ae0f-4ded-97ba-4073950c939a", "symbol": "LOKO", "name": "Lokotech Group AS", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 53.284, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 10.977, "architecture_energy": 11.423, "architecture_maturity": 4.364, "architecture_confidence": 47.415, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.63, "rotation_up": 48.63, "upward_expansion": 40.72, "deceleration": 31.17, "rotation_down": 18.89, "downward_expansion": 13.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.732067, 0.725909, 0.713243, 0.719619 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.717, "trend_reference": 0.7244, "distance_from_trend": -0.010215, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.902642, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.205665, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.13188, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.018466, "excess_performance": -0.106528, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.010215, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01834, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.205665, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041682, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121319, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024771, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.018466, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.534987, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8566790, "relative_activity": 0.41529, "balance": 0.534987, "dry_up": 0.522709, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103208, "annualized_volatility": 0.552054, "from_high_reference": -0.28012, "from_low_reference": 0.303636 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.7244, "fair_value_reference": 0.902642, "structural_low": 0.55, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.056338, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.043499, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.62963, "worst_return": -0.297389, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.009468, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.082323, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.767123, "worst_return": -0.147126, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.020588, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.028784, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.328, "worst_return": -0.579909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.15873, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.223529, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.059259, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.16, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.43949, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", 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"relative_strength": -9.152949, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.293083, "energy": 14.669646, "activity_lines": [ 0.732133, 0.700818, 0.711619, 0.718056 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.77, "volume": 10368357, "typical_volume": 22272539.2, "trend": 0.728867, "fair_value": 0.90277, "relative_strength": -6.246085, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.777919, "energy": 22.298017, "activity_lines": [ 0.744533, 0.716727, 0.715838, 0.720576 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.723, "volume": 10118497, "typical_volume": 21705165.6, "trend": 0.725967, "fair_value": 0.903379, "relative_strength": -11.739358, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.558193, "energy": 15.401109, "activity_lines": [ 0.738933, 0.722509, 0.714905, 0.720198 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.717, "volume": 8566790, "typical_volume": 20628431.8, "trend": 0.7244, "fair_value": 0.902642, "relative_strength": -12.13188, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.976986, "energy": 11.423494, "activity_lines": [ 0.732067, 0.725909, 0.713243, 0.719619 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }