{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1420faac-3cea-4f8b-8c87-0615c6be0896", "symbol": "GVKPIL", "name": "GVK Power & Infrastructure Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.528, "architecture_energy": 88.926, "architecture_maturity": 22.742, "architecture_confidence": 85.577, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.84, "rotation_up": 8.66, "upward_expansion": 21.82, "deceleration": 37.06, "rotation_down": 83.76, "downward_expansion": 99.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.414, 2.518727, 2.722476, 2.762903 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 2.37, "trend_reference": 2.819, "distance_from_trend": -0.159276, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.904936, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.598641, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.641703, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.220395, "excess_performance": -0.176686, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.159276, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063248, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.598641, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.19291, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.216417, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.292858, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.220395, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.118094, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2850158, "relative_activity": 1.203184, "balance": 0.118094, "dry_up": 1.205931, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066861, "annualized_volatility": 0.348326, "from_high_reference": -0.416256, "from_low_reference": 0.021552 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.819, "fair_value_reference": 5.904936, "structural_low": 2.32, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.033088, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.037446, "regime_survival": 0.88, "best_return": 0.40619, "worst_return": -0.272352, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.06383, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.049775, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.117647, "worst_return": -0.235537, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.148248, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.118039, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.075472, "worst_return": -0.275449, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.347305, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.098039, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04401, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06701, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.074405, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.083565, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.257514, "energy": 76.6522, "activity_lines": [ 2.651333, 2.799455, 2.875762, 2.87929 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.51, "volume": 3155829, "typical_volume": 2518585.6, "trend": 2.889333, "fair_value": 5.918462, "relative_strength": -18.335374, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.368202, "energy": 80.19753, "activity_lines": [ 2.586, 2.720727, 2.843524, 2.853484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.43, "volume": 2334557, "typical_volume": 2463934.45, "trend": 2.864, "fair_value": 5.917692, "relative_strength": -18.3667, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.041591, "energy": 84.805632, "activity_lines": [ 2.516, 2.645636, 2.805, 2.823849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.39, "volume": 3086116, "typical_volume": 2460949.25, "trend": 2.840667, "fair_value": 5.914744, "relative_strength": -21.012459, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.919646, "energy": 87.430399, "activity_lines": [ 2.458, 2.577273, 2.763905, 2.793269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.37, "volume": 2850158, "typical_volume": 2368845.55, "trend": 2.819, "fair_value": 5.904936, "relative_strength": -21.641703, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.527595, "energy": 88.92617, "activity_lines": [ 2.414, 2.518727, 2.722476, 2.762903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }