{ "ticker": { "uuid": "14289efb-fa0b-4e0d-a22c-89001324e729", "symbol": "ICP1V", "name": "Incap Oyj", "exchange": "HEL", "country": "FI", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-18", "benchmark": "^OMXH25", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.536, "architecture_energy": 23.406, "architecture_maturity": 85.614, "architecture_confidence": 73.293, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.79, "rotation_up": 29.49, "upward_expansion": 20.46, "deceleration": 46.59, "rotation_down": 20.58, "downward_expansion": 54.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.294, 8.166364, 8.328762, 8.636538 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 8.18, "trend_reference": 9.061667, "distance_from_trend": -0.097296, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.725481, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.15891, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.804337, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.153209, "excess_performance": -0.276784, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.097296, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062166, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.15891, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065996, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.208043, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010304, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.153209, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.376675, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 123816, "relative_activity": 0.865195, "balance": 0.376675, "dry_up": 1.168788, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057457, "annualized_volatility": 0.419892, "from_high_reference": -0.267025, "from_low_reference": 0.126722 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.061667, "fair_value_reference": 9.725481, "structural_low": 7.26, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.012544, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": -0.010755, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.165123, "worst_return": -0.287397, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.019334, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.036201, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.128999, "worst_return": -0.362888, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.038153, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.064172, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.6901, "worst_return": -0.280702, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.13403, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.110885, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014085, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "violet", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.140171, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00994, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.011044, "active": false 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"relative_strength": -18.899248, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.409821, "energy": 35.92719, "activity_lines": [ 8.161333, 8.096182, 8.464619, 8.80514 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 8.41, "volume": 121576, "typical_volume": 148538.2, "trend": 9.164667, "fair_value": 9.73266, "relative_strength": -18.7217, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.870364, "energy": 25.811739, "activity_lines": [ 8.305333, 8.136, 8.419714, 8.753871 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 8.28, "volume": 122144, "typical_volume": 149342.35, "trend": 9.114, "fair_value": 9.727468, "relative_strength": -20.366875, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.331567, "energy": 24.537105, "activity_lines": [ 8.331333, 8.155455, 8.373429, 8.696796 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "close": 8.18, "volume": 123816, "typical_volume": 143107.7, "trend": 9.061667, "fair_value": 9.725481, "relative_strength": -20.804337, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.53627, "energy": 23.406164, "activity_lines": [ 8.294, 8.166364, 8.328762, 8.636538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }