{ "ticker": { "uuid": "14449531-c316-4fd0-88d7-c6c97138ed1f", "symbol": "600094", "name": "Greattown Holdings Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 55.44, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -22.637, "architecture_energy": 14.08, "architecture_maturity": 54.451, "architecture_confidence": 71.14, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.44, "rotation_up": 28.98, "upward_expansion": 16.39, "deceleration": 43.79, "rotation_down": 27.31, "downward_expansion": 64.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.054, 3.918545, 4.086667, 4.208086 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.46, "trend_reference": 4.397667, "distance_from_trend": 0.014174, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.694746, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.20712, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.117597, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.111554, "excess_performance": -0.06835, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.014174, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039811, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.20712, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148101, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.041176, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060096, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.111554, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.42499, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 162534854, "relative_activity": 1.442496, "balance": 1.42499, "dry_up": 1.161741, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09969, "annualized_volatility": 0.451012, "from_high_reference": -0.246622, "from_low_reference": 0.452769 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.397667, "fair_value_reference": 3.694746, "structural_low": 3.44, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.005952, "positive_rate": 0.52, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.004634, "regime_survival": 0.68, "best_return": 0.313993, "worst_return": -0.120548, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.021166, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.292063, "worst_return": -0.123288, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.048711, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.008346, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.285714, "worst_return": -0.080357, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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4.422333, "fair_value": 3.673522, "relative_strength": -8.080816, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.053968, "energy": 71.777264, "activity_lines": [ 3.77, 3.958364, 4.200619, 4.32486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.62, "volume": 142824332, "typical_volume": 107966623.7, "trend": 4.409667, "fair_value": 3.67711, "relative_strength": -10.823576, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.253707, "energy": 73.463829, "activity_lines": [ 3.71, 3.859273, 4.133905, 4.273097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.57, "volume": 101243833, "typical_volume": 108040727.55, "trend": 4.390333, "fair_value": 3.680122, "relative_strength": -13.247745, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.854418, "energy": 60.537128, "activity_lines": [ 3.652, 3.774364, 4.067952, 4.218925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.15, "volume": 116998998, "typical_volume": 109509702.45, "trend": 4.387667, "fair_value": 3.68698, "relative_strength": 0.062595, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.578249, "energy": 32.226352, "activity_lines": [ 3.819333, 3.813818, 4.062, 4.203419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.46, "volume": 162534854, "typical_volume": 112676115.15, "trend": 4.397667, "fair_value": 3.694746, "relative_strength": 4.117597, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.637368, "energy": 14.079642, "activity_lines": [ 4.054, 3.918545, 4.086667, 4.208086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }