{ "ticker": { "uuid": "14466313-9616-4c66-8933-d332b1065140", "symbol": "SNDL", "name": "SNDL Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.613, "architecture_energy": 75.999, "architecture_maturity": 67.197, "architecture_confidence": 86.352, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.19, "rotation_up": 10.11, "upward_expansion": 17.16, "deceleration": 37.22, "rotation_down": 78.49, "downward_expansion": 95.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.245, 1.291364, 1.350952, 1.381355 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.23, "trend_reference": 1.430167, "distance_from_trend": -0.13996, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.727821, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.288121, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.08412, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.18543, "excess_performance": -0.372884, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.13996, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094736, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.288121, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114294, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.380841, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074262, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.18543, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.282997, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9058311, "relative_activity": 0.900508, "balance": 0.282997, "dry_up": 0.911456, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078799, "annualized_volatility": 0.264955, "from_high_reference": -0.574394, "from_low_reference": 0.055794 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.430167, "fair_value_reference": 1.727821, "structural_low": 1.165, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.020059, "positive_rate": 0.439024, "directional_follow_through": 0.536585, "median_excess_return": -0.038475, "regime_survival": 0.853659, "best_return": 0.617647, "worst_return": -0.283452, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.139514, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": -0.178074, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.868217, "worst_return": -0.302462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.201299, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.271589, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.713178, "worst_return": -0.503749, "sufficient": true }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.026738, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.073034, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.595238, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.133065, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", 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"activity_lines": [ 1.361333, 1.392, 1.412238, 1.439269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.28, "volume": 7578998, "typical_volume": 9681143.4, "trend": 1.477667, "fair_value": 1.733686, "relative_strength": -34.513425, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.698525, "energy": 60.779764, "activity_lines": [ 1.328333, 1.368182, 1.398238, 1.42514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.245, "volume": 6088079, "typical_volume": 9750944.95, "trend": 1.4615, "fair_value": 1.731795, "relative_strength": -34.885335, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.022758, "energy": 73.719971, "activity_lines": [ 1.293, 1.340818, 1.382143, 1.410129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.23, "volume": 13948328, "typical_volume": 10099764.05, "trend": 1.4445, "fair_value": 1.730128, "relative_strength": -35.487713, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.992282, "energy": 77.282742, "activity_lines": [ 1.264333, 1.314091, 1.365881, 1.395194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.23, "volume": 9058311, "typical_volume": 10059107.55, "trend": 1.430167, "fair_value": 1.727821, "relative_strength": -38.08412, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.612668, "energy": 75.998645, "activity_lines": [ 1.245, 1.291364, 1.350952, 1.381355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }