{ "ticker": { "uuid": "14496ab3-1d8f-458e-8e3a-89fecfec4ba3", "symbol": "ED4", "name": "EDAG Engineering Group AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.109, "architecture_energy": 49.487, "architecture_maturity": 88.46, "architecture_confidence": 94.338, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.71, "rotation_up": 26.49, "upward_expansion": 7.34, "deceleration": 54.36, "rotation_down": 51.38, "downward_expansion": 80.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.102667, 3.135636, 3.25919, 3.395419 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.06, "trend_reference": 3.566, "distance_from_trend": -0.141896, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.814851, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.608438, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.689553, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.198953, "excess_performance": -0.263593, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.141896, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.192604, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.608438, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021606, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.406896, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039836, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.198953, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.78188, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15719, "relative_activity": 1.423249, "balance": 0.78188, "dry_up": 1.438279, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071141, "annualized_volatility": 0.205809, "from_high_reference": -0.592, "from_low_reference": 0.026846 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.566, "fair_value_reference": 7.814851, "structural_low": 2.98, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.034985, "positive_rate": 0.37931, "directional_follow_through": 0.586207, "median_excess_return": -0.039858, "regime_survival": 0.862069, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.136816, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.03596, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.054953, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.211604, "worst_return": -0.241905, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.085427, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.211687, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.084112, "worst_return": -0.275562, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.49635, "energy": 57.451772, "activity_lines": [ 3.162667, 3.224364, 3.411381, 3.55486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.11, "volume": 849, "typical_volume": 8219.6, "trend": 3.756333, "fair_value": 7.956895, "relative_strength": -38.656715, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.84907, "energy": 63.125023, "activity_lines": [ 3.132667, 3.195818, 3.36819, 3.508452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.12, "volume": 12298, "typical_volume": 8626.15, "trend": 3.693, "fair_value": 7.910424, "relative_strength": -38.303284, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.94511, "energy": 51.791411, "activity_lines": [ 3.118667, 3.175636, 3.329619, 3.467398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.15, "volume": 34674, "typical_volume": 10337.5, "trend": 3.632667, "fair_value": 7.86506, "relative_strength": -38.167182, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.543422, "energy": 48.294962, "activity_lines": [ 3.124667, 3.162364, 3.297143, 3.432366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.06, "volume": 15719, "typical_volume": 11044.45, "trend": 3.566, "fair_value": 7.814851, "relative_strength": -40.689553, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.10897, "energy": 49.486825, "activity_lines": [ 3.102667, 3.135636, 3.25919, 3.395419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }