{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1451702a-f90f-41a8-8259-128ff4a091c3", "symbol": "261110", "name": "Mirae Asset Tiger US Dollar Leverage ETF", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 55.805, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -47.13, "architecture_energy": 70.13, "architecture_maturity": 8.477, "architecture_confidence": 88.342, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.02, "rotation_up": 14.02, "upward_expansion": 28.71, "deceleration": 49.85, "rotation_down": 76.3, "downward_expansion": 56.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 17420.333333, 18142.090909, 18480.404762, 18437.0 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 16790.0, "trend_reference": 18269.166667, "distance_from_trend": -0.080965, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16393.177874, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.024207, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.970803, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.056742, "excess_performance": -0.28657, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.080965, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020717, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.024207, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088847, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.239708, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.191148, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.056742, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.864257, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10553, "relative_activity": 0.901646, "balance": 0.864257, "dry_up": 0.862814, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042379, "annualized_volatility": 0.185381, "from_high_reference": -0.161339, "from_low_reference": 0.095067 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18269.166667, "fair_value_reference": 16393.177874, "structural_low": 16655.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00281, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.050571, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.020688, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047985, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": 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18913.333333, 19095.0, 18892.880952, 18636.133333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17960.0, "volume": 12031, "typical_volume": 11569.15, "trend": 18296.5, "fair_value": 16383.872017, "relative_strength": -25.802244, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.401438, "energy": 17.297619, "activity_lines": [ 18527.666667, 18882.818182, 18820.333333, 18616.311828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17020.0, "volume": 8844, "typical_volume": 11344.4, "trend": 18292.833333, "fair_value": 16389.6029, "relative_strength": -27.713276, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.54297, "energy": 44.217063, "activity_lines": [ 17926.333333, 18514.363636, 18658.071429, 18533.956989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16790.0, "volume": 10553, "typical_volume": 11704.15, "trend": 18269.166667, "fair_value": 16393.177874, "relative_strength": -23.970803, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -47.130222, "energy": 70.130487, "activity_lines": [ 17420.333333, 18142.090909, 18480.404762, 18437.0 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }