{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1454e7ad-cd60-4588-a9b1-444a64ec2ea9", "symbol": "SAEM", "name": "iShares MSCI EM IMI Screened UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 65.04, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 10.724, "architecture_energy": 18.165, "architecture_maturity": 64.436, "architecture_confidence": 86.562, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.28, "rotation_up": 16.87, "upward_expansion": 45.4, "deceleration": 87.89, "rotation_down": 39.37, "downward_expansion": 28.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.172133, 10.320764, 10.339505, 10.133946 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 10.298, "trend_reference": 9.873867, "distance_from_trend": 0.042955, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.395128, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.392538, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.052799, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.105291, "excess_performance": 0.022408, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.042955, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069275, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.392538, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105192, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.010528, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.189751, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.105291, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.274198, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 266022, "relative_activity": 0.210486, "balance": 0.274198, "dry_up": 2.483673, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045371, "annualized_volatility": 0.26636, "from_high_reference": -0.074587, "from_low_reference": 0.335495 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.873867, "fair_value_reference": 7.395128, "structural_low": 8.529, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.009054, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.012267, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.137059, "worst_return": -0.043667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.054039, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.062003, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.206853, "worst_return": 0.011058, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.046457, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.037302, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.093873, "worst_return": 0.030542, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005939, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025332, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024422, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02958, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.062093, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": 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"relative_strength": 5.896619, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.195383, "energy": 47.718921, "activity_lines": [ 10.6488, 10.627527, 10.307162, 10.045888 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.862, "volume": 10901727, "typical_volume": 1252129.45, "trend": 9.7288, "fair_value": 7.314641, "relative_strength": -1.402039, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.128085, "energy": 19.632645, "activity_lines": [ 10.368667, 10.497127, 10.296624, 10.057617 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.028, "volume": 1110901, "typical_volume": 1294297.0, "trend": 9.779367, "fair_value": 7.339532, "relative_strength": 0.233371, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.295062, "energy": 21.910604, "activity_lines": [ 10.198933, 10.408618, 10.301967, 10.07692 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.196, "volume": 277294, "typical_volume": 1265226.6, "trend": 9.830733, "fair_value": 7.366577, "relative_strength": 1.596497, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.318513, "energy": 21.986211, "activity_lines": [ 10.158533, 10.353855, 10.3189, 10.1038 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.298, "volume": 266022, "typical_volume": 1263848.25, "trend": 9.873867, "fair_value": 7.395128, "relative_strength": 1.052799, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.723615, "energy": 18.16546, "activity_lines": [ 10.172133, 10.320764, 10.339505, 10.133946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }