{ "ticker": { "uuid": "145924aa-c608-40c0-bd3e-c2e295829168", "symbol": "603331", "name": "Zhejiang Baida Precision Manufacturing Corp.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.77, "architecture_energy": 36.851, "architecture_maturity": 64.691, "architecture_confidence": 54.09, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.51, "rotation_up": 26.09, "upward_expansion": 17.37, "deceleration": 66.74, "rotation_down": 37.73, "downward_expansion": 65.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.489333, 11.328545, 12.207857, 13.082731 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12.45, "trend_reference": 14.075333, "distance_from_trend": -0.115474, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.284103, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.103322, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.260411, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.203455, "excess_performance": -0.160251, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.115474, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015917, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.103322, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.246212, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032604, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163501, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.203455, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.12618, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27210100, "relative_activity": 0.783881, "balance": 1.12618, "dry_up": 1.008877, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111894, "annualized_volatility": 0.510652, "from_high_reference": -0.428375, "from_low_reference": 0.31746 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.075333, "fair_value_reference": 11.284103, "structural_low": 9.45, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.004367, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": 0.004574, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.531891, "worst_return": -0.319907, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.021481, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.029802, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.212932, "worst_return": -0.198953, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.098082, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.029133, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.30983, "worst_return": -0.203717, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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85.40904, "activity_lines": [ 11.348667, 12.241091, 13.42719, 14.045441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.89, "volume": 42701192, "typical_volume": 49908573.3, "trend": 14.236, "fair_value": 11.35697, "relative_strength": -16.665253, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.789022, "energy": 82.933808, "activity_lines": [ 11.108667, 11.850909, 13.080476, 13.827634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.48, "volume": 33739779, "typical_volume": 41209815.45, "trend": 14.207, "fair_value": 11.331889, "relative_strength": -14.775882, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.782327, "energy": 68.687106, "activity_lines": [ 10.855333, 11.444182, 12.737143, 13.585312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.88, "volume": 43436200, "typical_volume": 37659276.25, "trend": 14.177667, "fair_value": 11.310746, "relative_strength": -12.615792, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.981521, "energy": 55.468519, "activity_lines": [ 10.826, 11.200182, 12.468762, 13.370667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.4, "volume": 35694574, "typical_volume": 35300978.95, "trend": 14.135333, "fair_value": 11.291749, "relative_strength": -8.878426, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.269635, "energy": 50.447404, "activity_lines": [ 11.012667, 11.142, 12.277476, 13.191462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.45, "volume": 27210100, "typical_volume": 34712014.75, "trend": 14.075333, "fair_value": 11.284103, "relative_strength": -3.260411, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.769842, "energy": 36.850582, "activity_lines": [ 11.489333, 11.328545, 12.207857, 13.082731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }