{ "ticker": { "uuid": "14656e66-0f8d-4754-a488-220663cc8159", "symbol": "0027", "name": "Galaxy Entertainment Group Limited", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 88.165, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 44.706, "architecture_energy": 47.749, "architecture_maturity": 7.751, "architecture_confidence": 81.259, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.6, "rotation_up": 73.83, "upward_expansion": 41.74, "deceleration": 31.23, "rotation_down": 14.04, "downward_expansion": 23.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.508001, 33.243273, 32.378191, 32.860694 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 36.0, "trend_reference": 34.227577, "distance_from_trend": 0.051783, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 35.126582, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.024865, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.531279, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.130746, "excess_performance": -0.115455, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.051783, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057977, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.024865, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.152178, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.015313, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.122507, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.130746, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.998725, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 68412392, "relative_activity": 1.309371, "balance": 0.998725, "dry_up": 1.300021, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046752, "annualized_volatility": 0.253103, "from_high_reference": -0.165343, "from_low_reference": 0.25523 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.227577, "fair_value_reference": 35.126582, "structural_low": 28.68, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.058076, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.001158, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.102374, "worst_return": -0.118153, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.103175, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.095876, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.224926, "worst_return": -0.183763, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.030285, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.079817, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.200648, "worst_return": -0.211092, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.452362, "energy": 31.182527, "activity_lines": [ 31.265333, 30.98, 31.545745, 32.903136 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.200001, "volume": 94398675, "typical_volume": 49782540.3, "trend": 34.717382, "fair_value": 35.375831, "relative_strength": -6.692036, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.964248, "energy": 19.823722, "activity_lines": [ 32.385334, 31.562182, 31.720102, 32.862254 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.880001, "volume": 48585333, "typical_volume": 49825888.45, "trend": 34.54018, "fair_value": 35.265528, "relative_strength": -9.17866, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.890712, "energy": 20.173866, "activity_lines": [ 32.732001, 31.861091, 31.775233, 32.743713 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 34.740002, "volume": 60299013, "typical_volume": 50545361.65, "trend": 34.386613, "fair_value": 35.189515, "relative_strength": -1.779059, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 16.919612, "energy": 30.871304, "activity_lines": [ 33.518668, 32.469819, 32.017123, 32.756605 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 36.0, "volume": 68412392, "typical_volume": 52248269.55, "trend": 34.227577, "fair_value": 35.126582, "relative_strength": -1.531279, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 44.705653, "energy": 47.749475, "activity_lines": [ 34.508001, 33.243273, 32.378191, 32.860694 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }