{ "ticker": { "uuid": "14782e54-b11b-4ced-9c74-f6edc03c5998", "symbol": "603789", "name": "Thinker Agricultural Machinery Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 49.794, "architecture_energy": 21.862, "architecture_maturity": 30.482, "architecture_confidence": 84.081, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.75, "rotation_up": 39.07, "upward_expansion": 68.32, "deceleration": 88.74, "rotation_down": 24.67, "downward_expansion": 8.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.036667, 5.999455, 5.885048, 5.821398 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.19, "trend_reference": 5.744667, "distance_from_trend": 0.077521, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.063846, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.123707, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.670877, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.063574, "excess_performance": 0.106778, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.077521, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013169, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.123707, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045547, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.076709, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.099921, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.063574, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.817742, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20986520, "relative_activity": 1.006317, "balance": 0.817742, "dry_up": 1.488619, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104262, "annualized_volatility": 0.456073, "from_high_reference": -0.19401, "from_low_reference": 0.21135 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.744667, "fair_value_reference": 7.063846, "structural_low": 5.2, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.148183, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.12643, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.222989, "worst_return": -0.31485, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.179688, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.21298, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.1, "worst_return": -0.250575, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.248571, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.19995, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.027285, "worst_return": -0.409195, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 20739848.95, "trend": 5.688, "fair_value": 7.140577, "relative_strength": 8.072649, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.695214, "energy": 47.329062, "activity_lines": [ 6.137333, 5.939455, 5.829429, 5.771978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.76, "volume": 32609910, "typical_volume": 21581517.75, "trend": 5.700333, "fair_value": 7.113077, "relative_strength": 3.609695, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.740301, "energy": 38.395032, "activity_lines": [ 6.07, 5.921273, 5.830619, 5.776624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.92, "volume": 25157950, "typical_volume": 22131319.75, "trend": 5.715667, "fair_value": 7.089167, "relative_strength": 5.981358, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.359174, "energy": 33.620567, "activity_lines": [ 6.022667, 5.936364, 5.846286, 5.790796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.19, "volume": 20986520, "typical_volume": 20854771.75, "trend": 5.744667, "fair_value": 7.063846, "relative_strength": 7.670877, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.794295, "energy": 21.862179, "activity_lines": [ 6.036667, 5.999455, 5.885048, 5.821398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }