{ "ticker": { "uuid": "14814422-4c9a-47eb-8a53-cdcfb66a7c36", "symbol": "CYW", "name": "TrickleStar Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.22, "architecture_energy": 21.552, "architecture_maturity": 81.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.74, "rotation_up": 20.11, "upward_expansion": 53.45, "deceleration": 93.94, "rotation_down": 29.9, "downward_expansion": 19.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.083133, 0.0882, 0.08411, 0.072249 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.085, "trend_reference": 0.057733, "distance_from_trend": 0.472286, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.07564, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.123741, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 58.926902, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.931034, "excess_performance": 1.776199, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.472286, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.567421, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.123741, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.725193, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.589269, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.553208, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.931034, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.050435, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1056600, "relative_activity": 0.049506, "balance": 5.050435, "dry_up": 0.21187, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.229864, "annualized_volatility": 1.578052, "from_high_reference": -0.351145, "from_low_reference": 2.695652 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.057733, "fair_value_reference": 0.07564, "structural_low": 0.024, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.041222, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.142857, "worst_return": -0.272727, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.119481, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.138435, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.142857, "worst_return": -0.381818, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.09039, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.067854, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.142857, "worst_return": -0.323636, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.127273, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.101538, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.127273, "worst_return": -0.127273, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.527778, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.421053, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.060606, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.375, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064516, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037037, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward 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"activity_lines": [ 0.095067, 0.097636, 0.077395, 0.064761 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.082, "volume": 6637600, "typical_volume": 21364639.2, "trend": 0.052633, "fair_value": 0.077512, "relative_strength": 67.061416, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.905775, "energy": 33.471077, "activity_lines": [ 0.0894, 0.095709, 0.07941, 0.066766 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.082, "volume": 5402200, "typical_volume": 21386669.2, "trend": 0.054367, "fair_value": 0.076884, "relative_strength": 62.113557, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.669527, "energy": 25.683729, "activity_lines": [ 0.0856, 0.092891, 0.081171, 0.06866 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.081, "volume": 4991400, "typical_volume": 21477884.2, "trend": 0.056, "fair_value": 0.076249, "relative_strength": 56.293671, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.860278, "energy": 24.78942, "activity_lines": [ 0.083267, 0.090145, 0.082576, 0.070378 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.085, "volume": 1056600, "typical_volume": 21343034.2, "trend": 0.057733, "fair_value": 0.07564, "relative_strength": 58.926902, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.219827, "energy": 21.5518, "activity_lines": [ 0.083133, 0.0882, 0.08411, 0.072249 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }