{ "ticker": { "uuid": "14873cf7-ed8d-4021-84e6-1ce72dc77f66", "symbol": "600338", "name": "Xizang Zhufeng Resources Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.375, "architecture_energy": 82.54, "architecture_maturity": 23.606, "architecture_confidence": 94.435, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.14, "rotation_up": 12.64, "upward_expansion": 20.93, "deceleration": 37.19, "rotation_down": 70.98, "downward_expansion": 94.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.915267, 13.664206, 16.120422, 17.013002 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.92, "trend_reference": 17.847857, "distance_from_trend": -0.220074, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.72844, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.093614, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.322122, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.264659, "excess_performance": -0.221455, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.220074, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000157, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.093614, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.797233, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.123221, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.657832, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.264659, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.453577, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 222983632, "relative_activity": 0.821573, "balance": 0.453577, "dry_up": 0.821572, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.140846, "annualized_volatility": 0.764242, "from_high_reference": -0.507779, "from_low_reference": 0.264305 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.847857, "fair_value_reference": 12.72844, "structural_low": 11.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.020902, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.012695, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.285433, "worst_return": -0.262436, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.068045, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.064162, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.437216, "worst_return": -0.309022, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.108744, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.087341, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.278814, "worst_return": -0.330357, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.61, "volume": 194281557, "typical_volume": 271763687.85, "trend": 18.014191, "fair_value": 12.825168, "relative_strength": -23.374886, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.198674, "energy": 86.669709, "activity_lines": [ 13.535991, 15.221245, 17.575551, 17.979426 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.16, "volume": 281998775, "typical_volume": 272890786.1, "trend": 17.960191, "fair_value": 12.786436, "relative_strength": -20.829467, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.420822, "energy": 85.635801, "activity_lines": [ 12.785055, 14.400414, 16.987619, 17.601736 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.8, "volume": 192669972, "typical_volume": 271344351.1, "trend": 17.885191, "fair_value": 12.753465, "relative_strength": -17.006125, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.445133, "energy": 86.411558, "activity_lines": [ 12.596278, 13.860855, 16.487354, 17.26882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.92, "volume": 222983632, "typical_volume": 271410764.6, "trend": 17.847857, "fair_value": 12.72844, "relative_strength": -12.322122, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.37521, "energy": 82.540303, "activity_lines": [ 12.915267, 13.664206, 16.120422, 17.013002 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }