{ "ticker": { "uuid": "148d5dfc-3a1f-4ccf-b109-9d3a0792ca54", "symbol": "603023", "name": "Harbin VITI Electronics Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.867, "architecture_energy": 49.05, "architecture_maturity": 57.909, "architecture_confidence": 86.418, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.85, "rotation_up": 23.38, "upward_expansion": 7.42, "deceleration": 60.24, "rotation_down": 51.57, "downward_expansion": 78.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.623333, 3.664, 3.971, 4.217978 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.83, "trend_reference": 4.591667, "distance_from_trend": -0.16588, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.717628, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.030227, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.86964, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.271863, "excess_performance": -0.228659, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.16588, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06477, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.030227, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.234464, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.148696, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114707, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.271863, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.644214, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 48896668, "relative_activity": 0.780859, "balance": 0.644214, "dry_up": 0.88521, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.114079, "annualized_volatility": 0.341887, "from_high_reference": -0.415267, "from_low_reference": 0.239482 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.591667, "fair_value_reference": 3.717628, "structural_low": 3.09, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.00544, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003565, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.4, "worst_return": -0.424242, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.002445, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.071884, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.617486, "worst_return": -0.330303, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.115486, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.206918, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.540984, "worst_return": -0.445455, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.16318, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.10473, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.138889, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.489437, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.38756, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.089606, "active": false }, { 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.495658, "energy": 83.44674, "activity_lines": [ 3.649333, 3.856, 4.180238, 4.430796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.41, "volume": 51169414, "typical_volume": 62795188.25, "trend": 4.698667, "fair_value": 3.734487, "relative_strength": -22.042713, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.251022, "energy": 68.49914, "activity_lines": [ 3.556667, 3.728727, 4.084095, 4.342516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.57, "volume": 70141116, "typical_volume": 62897030.45, "trend": 4.631667, "fair_value": 3.725385, "relative_strength": -18.586384, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.759886, "energy": 57.418921, "activity_lines": [ 3.544667, 3.660545, 4.011667, 4.269699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.83, "volume": 48896668, "typical_volume": 62619074.45, "trend": 4.591667, "fair_value": 3.717628, "relative_strength": -14.86964, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.867392, "energy": 49.050018, "activity_lines": [ 3.623333, 3.664, 3.971, 4.217978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }