{ "ticker": { "uuid": "149077f1-6cb2-49f7-918f-c2bc9669c7b8", "symbol": "COPC", "name": "Coppa Collective plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 60.465, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 44.38, "architecture_energy": 17.946, "architecture_maturity": 37.854, "architecture_confidence": 57.309, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.48, "rotation_up": 37.61, "upward_expansion": 64.71, "deceleration": 65.84, "rotation_down": 22.25, "downward_expansion": 7.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.143, 0.142636, 0.14219, 0.142016 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.145, "trend_reference": 0.139, "distance_from_trend": 0.043165, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.177692, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.183983, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.688407, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.208333, "excess_performance": 0.157098, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043165, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052366, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.183983, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11658, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.036884, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013137, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.208333, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.809037, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37402, "relative_activity": 0.468867, "balance": 1.809037, "dry_up": 0.66889, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068568, "annualized_volatility": 0.284786, "from_high_reference": -0.09375, "from_low_reference": 0.526316 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.139, "fair_value_reference": 0.177692, "structural_low": 0.115, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.025926, "positive_rate": 0.181818, "directional_follow_through": 0.181818, "median_excess_return": -0.047053, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.122807, "worst_return": -0.352273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.173077, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.192246, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.054545, "worst_return": -0.284091, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.328449, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.405476, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.125, "worst_return": -0.420455, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.44053, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.55526, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.358333, "worst_return": -0.522727, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-08-25", "end": "2023-09-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-06", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.174603, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.27, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034921, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 0.1375, "volume": 62101, "typical_volume": 109005.6, "trend": 0.137, "fair_value": 0.179679, "relative_strength": -0.132123, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.544055, "energy": 4.353137, "activity_lines": [ 0.140833, 0.141591, 0.141798, 0.141048 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.145, "volume": 111973, "typical_volume": 100454.15, "trend": 0.138, "fair_value": 0.178782, "relative_strength": 4.06303, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.23463, "energy": 13.217236, "activity_lines": [ 0.142, 0.142136, 0.141976, 0.141565 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.145, "volume": 37402, "typical_volume": 79771.0, "trend": 0.139, "fair_value": 0.177692, "relative_strength": 3.688407, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.380346, "energy": 17.946271, "activity_lines": [ 0.143, 0.142636, 0.14219, 0.142016 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }