{ "ticker": { "uuid": "14908927-421b-4a04-8419-650eddb31a5a", "symbol": "MIPF", "name": "Millionaire Property Fund", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 78.769, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.633, "architecture_energy": 12.86, "architecture_maturity": 15.283, "architecture_confidence": 88.03, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.26, "rotation_up": 30.34, "upward_expansion": 33.5, "deceleration": 27.31, "rotation_down": 34.46, "downward_expansion": 44.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.196667, 9.199091, 9.187381, 9.200144 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 9.05, "trend_reference": 9.215765, "distance_from_trend": -0.017987, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.767123, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.073422, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.473931, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.032473, "excess_performance": -0.224798, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.017987, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015265, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.073422, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00644, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.164739, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025707, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.032473, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.443709, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.443709, "dry_up": 0.918079, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045049, "annualized_volatility": 0.152287, "from_high_reference": -0.257213, "from_low_reference": 0.150698 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.215765, "fair_value_reference": 9.767123, "structural_low": 8.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.008332, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": -0.025812, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.172043, "worst_return": -0.137931, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.010617, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.025094, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.394479, "worst_return": -0.184209, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.00837, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.025731, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.330076, "worst_return": -0.227367, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.086261, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.002006, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.211961, "worst_return": -0.146424, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.193548, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.09, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.214565, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.072727, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.183761, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018868, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026042, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.157895, "active": false 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"fair_value": 9.869711, "relative_strength": -15.698526, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.870802, "energy": 10.645805, "activity_lines": [ 9.19, 9.141818, 9.180591, 9.192297 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.35, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 1560.0, "trend": 9.200759, "fair_value": 9.844785, "relative_strength": -15.755055, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.99159, "energy": 16.107666, "activity_lines": [ 9.27, 9.18, 9.194762, 9.201814 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.5, "volume": 5400, "typical_volume": 1730.0, "trend": 9.204036, "fair_value": 9.820821, "relative_strength": -14.276583, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.541751, "energy": 34.411829, "activity_lines": [ 9.366667, 9.244545, 9.220952, 9.22112 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.05, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 1770.0, "trend": 9.221093, "fair_value": 9.793972, "relative_strength": -17.187667, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.070726, "energy": 8.154559, "activity_lines": [ 9.276667, 9.221818, 9.203571, 9.211182 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.05, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1770.0, "trend": 9.215765, "fair_value": 9.767123, "relative_strength": -16.473931, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.632631, "energy": 12.859942, "activity_lines": [ 9.196667, 9.199091, 9.187381, 9.200144 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }