{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1493e0ec-e255-402a-937c-f0df5260db56", "symbol": "EMXCNS", "name": "UBS MSCI EM ex China Socially Responsible UCITS ETF USD acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 30.026, "architecture_energy": 27.24, "architecture_maturity": 69.826, "architecture_confidence": 95.831, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.54, "rotation_up": 24.6, "upward_expansion": 58.61, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 37.41, "downward_expansion": 22.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.2636, 10.492927, 10.404281, 9.991576 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 10.494, "trend_reference": 9.451267, "distance_from_trend": 0.110327, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.800821, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.543049, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 12.8087, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.255113, "excess_performance": 0.17223, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.110327, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.130606, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.543049, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088677, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.128087, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.243015, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.255113, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.583013, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 2.583013, "dry_up": 0.082161, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052763, "annualized_volatility": 0.350322, "from_high_reference": -0.077045, "from_low_reference": 0.64741 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.451267, "fair_value_reference": 6.800821, "structural_low": 7.66, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.174335, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.126648, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.174335, "worst_return": 0.174335, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.355099, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.227619, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.355099, "worst_return": 0.355099, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.201095, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.1582, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.093602, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022608, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-03-22", "close": 5.151, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, 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8.9829, "fair_value": 6.654197, "relative_strength": 24.317888, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.700958, "energy": 68.105583, "activity_lines": [ 11.0108, 10.822855, 10.113176, 9.624703 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.766, "volume": 1828, "typical_volume": 10215.4, "trend": 9.0946, "fair_value": 6.688179, "relative_strength": 20.788534, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.01576, "energy": 63.473835, "activity_lines": [ 10.951867, 10.856945, 10.23119, 9.739742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.188, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 9742.55, "trend": 9.1895, "fair_value": 6.716866, "relative_strength": 12.830535, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.682289, "energy": 45.460552, "activity_lines": [ 10.688667, 10.760636, 10.284305, 9.810284 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.262, "volume": 180, "typical_volume": 9633.4, "trend": 9.284567, "fair_value": 6.745688, "relative_strength": 13.151711, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.728275, "energy": 33.979008, "activity_lines": [ 10.494267, 10.681273, 10.338552, 9.879477 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.889, "volume": 2083, "typical_volume": 6888.35, "trend": 9.3609, "fair_value": 6.771037, "relative_strength": 8.382608, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.812766, "energy": 26.790139, "activity_lines": [ 10.2494, 10.529273, 10.347233, 9.918473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.494, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 6885.9, "trend": 9.451267, "fair_value": 6.800821, "relative_strength": 12.8087, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.026187, "energy": 27.240365, "activity_lines": [ 10.2636, 10.492927, 10.404281, 9.991576 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }