{ "ticker": { "uuid": "14990149-5ee6-4c22-8660-e606ca49de7c", "symbol": "7202", "name": "Arabian Internet and Communication Services Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 64.858, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.913, "architecture_energy": 17.793, "architecture_maturity": 16.834, "architecture_confidence": 47.986, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.11, "rotation_up": 36.42, "upward_expansion": 60.09, "deceleration": 58.13, "rotation_down": 29.84, "downward_expansion": 21.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 209.360001, 208.636365, 210.152091, 206.993423 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 213.300003, "trend_reference": 205.62506, "distance_from_trend": 0.037325, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 259.163596, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.176968, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.15345, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.002855, "excess_performance": 0.028974, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.037325, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015488, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.176968, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006874, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.001535, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024834, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.002855, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.493663, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 605012, "relative_activity": 1.061532, "balance": 0.493663, "dry_up": 0.803862, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041911, "annualized_volatility": 0.328931, "from_high_reference": -0.186057, "from_low_reference": 0.299629 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 205.62506, "fair_value_reference": 259.163596, "structural_low": 164.123724, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.060187, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.044257, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.111753, "worst_return": -0.085937, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.130111, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.047879, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.177906, "worst_return": -0.133203, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.073602, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.107859, "regime_survival": 0.0, 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"2026-07-24", "close": 202.0, "volume": 286486, "typical_volume": 557372.25, "trend": 205.741096, "fair_value": 260.675207, "relative_strength": -5.38855, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.633451, "energy": 29.943592, "activity_lines": [ 202.846669, 207.085457, 208.54605, 205.909098 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 214.899994, "volume": 713077, "typical_volume": 553484.75, "trend": 205.651852, "fair_value": 259.91519, "relative_strength": 2.749634, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.42014, "energy": 18.160219, "activity_lines": [ 206.58, 208.018183, 209.524332, 206.499994 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 213.300003, "volume": 605012, "typical_volume": 569942.55, "trend": 205.62506, "fair_value": 259.163596, "relative_strength": -0.15345, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.912999, "energy": 17.793224, "activity_lines": [ 209.360001, 208.636365, 210.152091, 206.993423 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }