{ "ticker": { "uuid": "14997e76-edba-41f3-a499-3681daf3080f", "symbol": "TBX", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST SHORT 7-10YR TREAS", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 93.953, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.115, "architecture_energy": 63.247, "architecture_maturity": 9.693, "architecture_confidence": 66.08, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.5, "rotation_up": 72.85, "upward_expansion": 90.95, "deceleration": 41.62, "rotation_down": 12.12, "downward_expansion": 12.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.71298, 28.575265, 28.441501, 28.313456 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 28.73, "trend_reference": 28.134431, "distance_from_trend": 0.021169, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.32249, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.051515, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.164228, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.034457, "excess_performance": -0.091168, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.021169, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011393, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.051515, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014008, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.081642, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020289, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.034457, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.842856, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 73618, "relative_activity": 0.572275, "balance": 0.842856, "dry_up": 0.929728, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012185, "annualized_volatility": 0.053214, "from_high_reference": -0.006467, "from_low_reference": 0.058657 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.134431, "fair_value_reference": 27.32249, "structural_low": 27.2953, 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"activity_lines": [ 28.40594, 28.379792, 28.295025, 28.176205 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.76, "volume": 249604, "typical_volume": 127215.85, "trend": 28.061273, "fair_value": 27.283272, "relative_strength": -4.381452, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.954851, "energy": 63.370871, "activity_lines": [ 28.538833, 28.44784, 28.347699, 28.223815 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.82, "volume": 34733, "typical_volume": 126263.1, "trend": 28.09929, "fair_value": 27.303969, "relative_strength": -4.944478, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.306463, "energy": 68.924944, "activity_lines": [ 28.663573, 28.522874, 28.400948, 28.272765 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.73, "volume": 73618, "typical_volume": 128640.85, "trend": 28.134431, "fair_value": 27.32249, "relative_strength": -8.164228, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.115222, "energy": 63.247071, "activity_lines": [ 28.71298, 28.575265, 28.441501, 28.313456 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }