{ "ticker": { "uuid": "149d4310-3b4f-4d75-90ac-7c423e71eaa7", "symbol": "SPC", "name": "Staige One AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.972, "architecture_energy": 53.52, "architecture_maturity": 79.0, "architecture_confidence": 71.158, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.46, "rotation_up": 46.1, "upward_expansion": 71.51, "deceleration": 65.5, "rotation_down": 27.48, "downward_expansion": 21.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.62, 1.636364, 1.425595, 1.269978 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.74, "trend_reference": 1.115167, "distance_from_trend": 0.560305, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.266358, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.374019, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 37.692337, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.966102, "excess_performance": 0.901462, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.560305, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.180279, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.374019, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.746991, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.376923, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.73303, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.966102, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.827485, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6965, "relative_activity": 0.908972, "balance": 5.827485, "dry_up": 0.77491, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104332, "annualized_volatility": 0.79236, "from_high_reference": -0.033333, "from_low_reference": 1.468085 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.115167, "fair_value_reference": 1.266358, "structural_low": 0.705, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029586, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2025-01-24", "close": 1.46, "volume": 85, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-31", "close": 1.57, "volume": 10655, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-02-07", "close": 1.45, "volume": 1700, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, 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"fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.6, "volume": 6750, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.52, "volume": 2300, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.4, "volume": 2236, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.69, "volume": 12250, "typical_volume": 7314.25, "trend": 1.091833, "fair_value": 1.260437, "relative_strength": 37.650802, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.5808, "energy": 52.006977, "activity_lines": [ 1.570667, 1.603455, 1.371071, 1.228161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.74, "volume": 6965, "typical_volume": 7662.5, "trend": 1.115167, "fair_value": 1.266358, "relative_strength": 37.692337, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.971836, "energy": 53.519656, "activity_lines": [ 1.62, 1.636364, 1.425595, 1.269978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }