{ "ticker": { "uuid": "149e61dd-c611-4d5a-888b-260cd5126276", "symbol": "600031", "name": "Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -9.663, "architecture_energy": 16.614, "architecture_maturity": 30.076, "architecture_confidence": 68.523, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.87, "rotation_up": 38.5, "upward_expansion": 32.21, "deceleration": 46.96, "rotation_down": 17.02, "downward_expansion": 40.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.654724, 19.139804, 19.126116, 19.524193 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 19.58, "trend_reference": 20.247417, "distance_from_trend": -0.032963, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.473044, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.120583, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.022554, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.106752, "excess_performance": -0.063548, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.032963, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036724, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.120583, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07405, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.050226, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037801, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.106752, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.650935, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 406217121, "relative_activity": 1.14632, "balance": 0.650935, "dry_up": 1.18831, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072209, "annualized_volatility": 0.291936, "from_high_reference": -0.193907, "from_low_reference": 0.121894 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.247417, "fair_value_reference": 17.473044, "structural_low": 17.452634, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.037571, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.000174, "regime_survival": 0.307692, "best_return": 0.17049, "worst_return": -0.092127, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.068648, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.051808, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.200519, "worst_return": -0.198213, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.069793, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.067787, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.231246, "worst_return": -0.365948, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.216388, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.125282, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.441809, "worst_return": -0.434337, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.074153, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076376, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.130829, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.123303, "active": false 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"2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013896, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032696, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.073314, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.145485, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 16.742895, "volume": 292579462, "typical_volume": 263150950.75, "trend": 15.936598, "fair_value": 21.078041, "relative_strength": 5.743066, "stage": 1, 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"energy": 37.24323, "activity_lines": [ 18.422945, 18.434669, 18.9722, 19.607026 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.58, "volume": 446537655, "typical_volume": 349053597.65, "trend": 20.319751, "fair_value": 17.427213, "relative_strength": -2.112416, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.918059, "energy": 19.109622, "activity_lines": [ 18.854803, 18.609896, 18.983759, 19.55573 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.549999, "volume": 446844650, "typical_volume": 351891990.5, "trend": 20.299084, "fair_value": 17.454002, "relative_strength": 2.293546, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.146508, "energy": 14.277154, "activity_lines": [ 19.517694, 18.977486, 19.099366, 19.570585 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.58, "volume": 406217121, "typical_volume": 354366267.6, "trend": 20.247417, "fair_value": 17.473044, "relative_strength": -5.022554, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.662649, "energy": 16.614385, "activity_lines": [ 19.654724, 19.139804, 19.126116, 19.524193 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }