{ "ticker": { "uuid": "14ae97dc-c831-4642-9701-cc2d09eef19a", "symbol": "FOR", "name": "Forestar Group Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.217, "architecture_energy": 20.762, "architecture_maturity": 53.647, "architecture_confidence": 81.358, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.94, "rotation_up": 27.37, "upward_expansion": 57.12, "deceleration": 88.08, "rotation_down": 28.51, "downward_expansion": 18.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.071333, 29.544364, 28.824571, 28.249763 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 29.64, "trend_reference": 27.733667, "distance_from_trend": 0.068737, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.955897, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.060241, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.354453, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.012641, "excess_performance": -0.112984, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.068737, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054485, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.060241, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062317, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.023545, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005334, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.012641, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.19395, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 570829, "relative_activity": 0.813821, "balance": 1.19395, "dry_up": 0.975164, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068969, "annualized_volatility": 0.312729, "from_high_reference": -0.075483, "from_low_reference": 0.29943 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.733667, "fair_value_reference": 27.955897, "structural_low": 23.96, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.049793, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.033477, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.331608, "worst_return": -0.126883, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.186503, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.101063, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.44209, "worst_return": 0.051314, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.388178, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.168523, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.024011, "worst_return": 0.040865, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.074354, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053903, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017228, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.246299, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.153126, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014409, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025019, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038407, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.039577, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 28.66, "volume": 1049053, "typical_volume": 849161.75, "trend": 19.742333, "fair_value": 18.703077, "relative_strength": 57.073929, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.537121, "energy": 87.64373, 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"fair_value": 27.972564, "relative_strength": 2.816491, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.779109, "energy": 75.163099, "activity_lines": [ 30.626, 29.550182, 28.272952, 27.852043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.9, "volume": 503647, "typical_volume": 691278.35, "trend": 27.405333, "fair_value": 27.990833, "relative_strength": 2.089656, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.42449, "energy": 67.214461, "activity_lines": [ 30.475333, 29.780364, 28.509524, 28.023075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.32, "volume": 1082649, "typical_volume": 714417.05, "trend": 27.531667, "fair_value": 27.980192, "relative_strength": -2.661405, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.40013, "energy": 35.594475, "activity_lines": [ 29.751333, 29.679455, 28.59, 28.082086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.15, "volume": 578866, "typical_volume": 709076.75, "trend": 27.659333, "fair_value": 27.962372, "relative_strength": -4.144206, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.147373, "energy": 19.544169, "activity_lines": [ 29.036667, 29.496727, 28.643048, 28.121978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.64, "volume": 570829, "typical_volume": 701418.5, "trend": 27.733667, "fair_value": 27.955897, "relative_strength": -2.354453, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.216818, "energy": 20.761971, "activity_lines": [ 29.071333, 29.544364, 28.824571, 28.249763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }