{ "ticker": { "uuid": "14b34e45-d0dc-4f9b-af27-86d0b52e1293", "symbol": "605339", "name": "Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.027, "architecture_energy": 47.408, "architecture_maturity": 95.294, "architecture_confidence": 59.486, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.01, "rotation_up": 26.62, "upward_expansion": 19.4, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 45.39, "downward_expansion": 69.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.457333, 12.415179, 13.402855, 14.310805 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.08, "trend_reference": 15.627283, "distance_from_trend": -0.163002, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.810401, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.22191, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.653782, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.287582, "excess_performance": -0.244378, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.163002, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127869, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.22191, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142983, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.216538, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04369, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.287582, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.521538, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15389198, "relative_activity": 2.244279, "balance": 1.521538, "dry_up": 1.60084, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088782, "annualized_volatility": 0.351918, "from_high_reference": -0.437661, "from_low_reference": 0.155477 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.627283, "fair_value_reference": 16.810401, "structural_low": 11.32, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.012771, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.003014, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.214737, "worst_return": -0.180278, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.0365, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.011856, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.365508, "worst_return": -0.235189, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.060833, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.021386, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.140224, "worst_return": -0.135391, "sufficient": false }, { 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73.782343, "activity_lines": [ 12.210667, 12.8167, 14.067452, 15.034581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.42, "volume": 6150302, "typical_volume": 5850070.7, "trend": 16.11895, "fair_value": 16.897778, "relative_strength": -30.353264, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.376566, "energy": 70.844693, "activity_lines": [ 11.924, 12.418102, 13.725126, 14.710433 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.69, "volume": 15891066, "typical_volume": 6325523.4, "trend": 15.845283, "fair_value": 16.854036, "relative_strength": -22.455364, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.662884, "energy": 62.002517, "activity_lines": [ 12.135333, 12.342691, 13.534514, 14.489211 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.08, "volume": 15389198, "typical_volume": 6857078.3, "trend": 15.627283, "fair_value": 16.810401, "relative_strength": -21.653782, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.027074, "energy": 47.407842, "activity_lines": [ 12.457333, 12.415179, 13.402855, 14.310805 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }