{ "ticker": { "uuid": "14ba459a-8382-425f-ae0c-8f737ddfda81", "symbol": "688106", "name": "Jinhong Gas Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 23.896, "architecture_energy": 17.825, "architecture_maturity": 29.307, "architecture_confidence": 90.443, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.99, "rotation_up": 22.27, "upward_expansion": 48.31, "deceleration": 90.48, "rotation_down": 34.4, "downward_expansion": 23.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.767999, 31.417272, 30.973328, 30.044207 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 30.389999, "trend_reference": 28.351383, "distance_from_trend": 0.071905, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.847299, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.457743, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 25.078199, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.366696, "excess_performance": 0.4099, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.071905, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.162826, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.457743, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068404, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.250782, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092599, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.366696, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.628382, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 142843095, "relative_activity": 0.741716, "balance": 0.628382, "dry_up": 1.047701, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.200575, "annualized_volatility": 0.743961, "from_high_reference": -0.357505, "from_low_reference": 0.759759 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.351383, "fair_value_reference": 20.847299, "structural_low": 21.105959, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.005734, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": -0.00944, "regime_survival": 0.608696, "best_return": 0.254034, "worst_return": -0.173815, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.00164, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017457, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.515357, "worst_return": -0.334318, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.035398, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.036735, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.589482, "worst_return": 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"gate": "up", "direction": 56.493766, "energy": 60.803897, "activity_lines": [ 34.944, 32.310059, 31.118287, 29.442976 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 33.0, "volume": 293572739, "typical_volume": 194785462.4, "trend": 27.41971, "fair_value": 20.755714, "relative_strength": 45.566265, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.118229, "energy": 56.290416, "activity_lines": [ 34.788666, 32.659217, 31.428151, 29.833008 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.1, "volume": 212536437, "typical_volume": 198018565.9, "trend": 27.780975, "fair_value": 20.789311, "relative_strength": 29.827944, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.265001, "energy": 37.468553, "activity_lines": [ 33.344666, 32.445273, 31.41491, 30.00593 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.969999, "volume": 158132465, "typical_volume": 197562483.55, "trend": 27.985738, "fair_value": 20.800977, "relative_strength": 10.859821, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.726763, "energy": 10.46435, "activity_lines": [ 30.535333, 31.502545, 30.98269, 29.889093 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.389999, "volume": 142843095, "typical_volume": 192584732.4, "trend": 28.351383, "fair_value": 20.847299, "relative_strength": 25.078199, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.896176, "energy": 17.82473, "activity_lines": [ 29.767999, 31.417272, 30.973328, 30.044207 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }