{ "ticker": { "uuid": "14c1f542-f0ed-4564-a9ea-28c26e082698", "symbol": "MDAI", "name": "Spectral AI Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 54.636, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -17.604, "architecture_energy": 26.593, "architecture_maturity": 4.182, "architecture_confidence": 65.155, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.7, "rotation_up": 18.51, "upward_expansion": 18.17, "deceleration": 56.5, "rotation_down": 53.7, "downward_expansion": 45.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.662, 1.697455, 1.841095, 1.810043 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.75, "trend_reference": 1.754, "distance_from_trend": -0.002281, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.181228, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.197699, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.227369, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.151316, "excess_performance": -0.036138, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002281, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032372, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.197699, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005876, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.152274, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.171175, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.151316, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.498257, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1132044, "relative_activity": 0.418635, "balance": 0.498257, "dry_up": 0.321002, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.174519, "annualized_volatility": 0.662171, "from_high_reference": -0.410774, "from_low_reference": 0.483051 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.754, "fair_value_reference": 2.181228, "structural_low": 1.18, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.064046, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.016223, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.112903, "worst_return": -0.270588, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.057229, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.026089, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.288235, "worst_return": 0.006993, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.417647, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.167976, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.874126, "worst_return": -0.678715, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.187215, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033898, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.279621, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.08125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026455, "active": false }, { 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1.883455, 1.913095, 1.832581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.67, "volume": 977463, "typical_volume": 3593823.8, "trend": 1.736333, "fair_value": 2.354052, "relative_strength": -19.187437, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.70685, "energy": 22.700503, "activity_lines": [ 1.722667, 1.819091, 1.898571, 1.828559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.64, "volume": 555954, "typical_volume": 3571634.3, "trend": 1.743667, "fair_value": 2.295783, "relative_strength": -18.181323, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.763124, "energy": 25.570351, "activity_lines": [ 1.688667, 1.760909, 1.879905, 1.822344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.55, "volume": 806664, "typical_volume": 3550124.5, "trend": 1.747, "fair_value": 2.238022, "relative_strength": -22.0586, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.760188, "energy": 37.901732, "activity_lines": [ 1.636667, 1.700727, 1.851524, 1.809849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.75, "volume": 1132044, "typical_volume": 2704133.1, "trend": 1.754, "fair_value": 2.181228, "relative_strength": -15.227369, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.603753, "energy": 26.592858, "activity_lines": [ 1.662, 1.697455, 1.841095, 1.810043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }