{ "ticker": { "uuid": "14c7b56e-a9b2-430a-bc9d-5ea57a2e056c", "symbol": "BREE", "name": "Breedon Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 54.418, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 47.416, "architecture_energy": 60.446, "architecture_maturity": 14.972, "architecture_confidence": 74.607, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.19, "rotation_up": 75.21, "upward_expansion": 55.31, "deceleration": 16.3, "rotation_down": 16.97, "downward_expansion": 27.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 329.84, 318.785455, 309.181087, 311.459587 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 353.2, "trend_reference": 317.584335, "distance_from_trend": 0.112146, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 375.174309, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.058571, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.046843, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.017038, "excess_performance": -0.034197, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.112146, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016425, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.058571, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.143567, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.010468, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.191423, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.017038, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.793766, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4085334, "relative_activity": 0.845933, "balance": 0.793766, "dry_up": 0.947335, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055271, "annualized_volatility": 0.349815, "from_high_reference": -0.079297, "from_low_reference": 0.282498 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 317.584335, "fair_value_reference": 375.174309, "structural_low": 275.4, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.013198, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.022644, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.148903, "worst_return": -0.113605, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.053743, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.071641, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.245875, "worst_return": -0.117912, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.044032, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.072731, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.179764, "worst_return": 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"relative_strength": -12.046426, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.296682, "energy": 17.072354, "activity_lines": [ 305.24, 300.274709, 301.184736, 308.347592 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 315.0, "volume": 3826016, "typical_volume": 5496032.1, "trend": 316.78359, "fair_value": 375.443266, "relative_strength": -11.343943, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.004984, "energy": 9.76814, "activity_lines": [ 308.36, 303.747327, 302.116419, 308.203512 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 331.0, "volume": 6666003, "typical_volume": 5334463.6, "trend": 316.947251, "fair_value": 375.218425, "relative_strength": -7.455272, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 13.229784, "energy": 19.100094, "activity_lines": [ 316.093333, 309.64, 304.576167, 309.1207 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 353.2, "volume": 4085334, "typical_volume": 4829381.05, "trend": 317.584335, "fair_value": 375.174309, "relative_strength": -1.046843, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 47.41627, "energy": 60.44556, "activity_lines": [ 329.84, 318.785455, 309.181087, 311.459587 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }