{ "ticker": { "uuid": "14cb1212-38d7-4a53-843c-76133edf4c5c", "symbol": "STRS", "name": "Stratus Properties Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.582, "architecture_energy": 73.357, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.435, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.0, "rotation_up": 13.35, "upward_expansion": 14.1, "deceleration": 45.78, "rotation_down": 78.99, "downward_expansion": 92.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.795124, 20.904869, 23.714505, 25.410203 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 19.32, "trend_reference": 27.068295, "distance_from_trend": -0.28625, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.644095, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.182883, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.13228, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.352113, "excess_performance": -0.539566, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.28625, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004244, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.182883, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.437259, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.311323, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.3869, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.352113, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.07561, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 711166, "relative_activity": 2.238206, "balance": 0.07561, "dry_up": 1.629695, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107593, "annualized_volatility": 0.360541, "from_high_reference": -0.413301, "from_low_reference": 0.230573 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.068295, "fair_value_reference": 23.644095, "structural_low": 18.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.004016, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": -0.014956, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.196574, "worst_return": -0.198421, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.00555, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.008791, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.273726, "worst_return": -0.19255, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.207917, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.089372, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.699422, "worst_return": -0.185519, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.121916, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.171474, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.126012, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.117677, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.078546, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": 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27.379376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.72, "volume": 521964, "typical_volume": 252271.4, "trend": 27.574628, "fair_value": 23.8023, "relative_strength": -23.342321, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.598969, "energy": 91.471189, "activity_lines": [ 21.686007, 23.279169, 25.83587, 26.927551 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.82, "volume": 344097, "typical_volume": 266603.4, "trend": 27.415628, "fair_value": 23.753775, "relative_strength": -25.378176, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.653251, "energy": 91.099831, "activity_lines": [ 20.881757, 22.360826, 25.095637, 26.427252 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.6, "volume": 494045, "typical_volume": 287864.8, "trend": 27.268628, "fair_value": 23.701852, "relative_strength": -26.607884, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.917023, "energy": 84.651614, "activity_lines": [ 20.250909, 21.573575, 24.388071, 25.923018 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.32, "volume": 711166, "typical_volume": 317739.25, "trend": 27.068295, "fair_value": 23.644095, "relative_strength": -31.13228, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.581618, "energy": 73.356613, "activity_lines": [ 19.795124, 20.904869, 23.714505, 25.410203 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }