{ "ticker": { "uuid": "14cc1158-0ebb-41f9-bc2c-1ee2fd546e23", "symbol": "GSGI34", "name": "The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 40.136, "architecture_energy": 25.483, "architecture_maturity": 53.151, "architecture_confidence": 94.106, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.2, "rotation_up": 31.88, "upward_expansion": 62.78, "deceleration": 88.12, "rotation_down": 26.08, "downward_expansion": 15.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 176.524002, 178.268729, 173.586268, 167.899325 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 176.0, "trend_reference": 162.864347, "distance_from_trend": 0.080654, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 109.68147, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.604647, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.544426, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.100564, "excess_performance": 0.157612, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.080654, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055382, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.604647, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071434, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.095444, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.178753, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.100564, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.776449, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 227246, "relative_activity": 2.190347, "balance": 1.776449, "dry_up": 2.886121, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069587, "annualized_volatility": 0.26267, "from_high_reference": -0.102316, "from_low_reference": 0.379448 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 162.864347, "fair_value_reference": 109.68147, "structural_low": 135.581453, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.02514, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.013968, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.219147, "worst_return": -0.130004, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.055736, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.050034, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.310444, "worst_return": -0.277047, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.016707, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.051125, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.055624, "worst_return": -0.236752, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.109853, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030523, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.166109, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.196857, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.130004, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-17", 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494521, "typical_volume": 93033.95, "trend": 162.660782, "fair_value": 108.891816, "relative_strength": 3.455966, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.125074, "energy": 30.860549, "activity_lines": [ 177.294003, 178.784366, 172.571458, 167.03873 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 176.0, "volume": 227246, "typical_volume": 103748.85, "trend": 162.864347, "fair_value": 109.68147, "relative_strength": 9.544426, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.135664, "energy": 25.483187, "activity_lines": [ 176.524002, 178.268729, 173.586268, 167.899325 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }