{ "ticker": { "uuid": "14cc9d22-2166-4b97-bca3-232d776bfec5", "symbol": "ABTC", "name": "21Shares Bitcoin ETP", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.787, "architecture_energy": 36.068, "architecture_maturity": 27.691, "architecture_confidence": 67.769, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.99, "rotation_up": 25.91, "upward_expansion": 16.89, "deceleration": 65.99, "rotation_down": 35.3, "downward_expansion": 62.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.342247, 18.211567, 19.046838, 19.45033 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 18.544001, "trend_reference": 20.203886, "distance_from_trend": -0.082157, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.533661, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.177053, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.520855, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.051205, "excess_performance": -0.104517, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.082157, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115504, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.177053, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.20931, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.285209, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088186, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.051205, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.271121, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2998, "relative_activity": 0.387399, "balance": 0.271121, "dry_up": 0.414308, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057039, "annualized_volatility": 0.374103, "from_high_reference": -0.481843, "from_low_reference": 0.077645 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.203886, "fair_value_reference": 22.533661, "structural_low": 17.207899, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.082859, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.044439, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.154756, "worst_return": -0.086623, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.032933, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.082582, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.280382, "worst_return": -0.192154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.191166, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.269861, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.384895, "worst_return": -0.354266, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.107125, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06032, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.097439, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.075718, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.082063, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.133385, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.146627, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.074836, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030468, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 8.2657, "volume": 18908, "typical_volume": 27978.35, "trend": 8.622237, "fair_value": 10.346884, "relative_strength": 4.14919, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 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-67.034884, "energy": 84.482947, "activity_lines": [ 17.8339, 18.891505, 19.777904, 20.27722 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 18.5165, "volume": 3058, "typical_volume": 9286.55, "trend": 21.145593, "fair_value": 22.300222, "relative_strength": -29.341171, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.713376, "energy": 75.399402, "activity_lines": [ 18.063567, 18.6505, 19.637879, 20.092247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.2428, "volume": 3307, "typical_volume": 9053.6, "trend": 20.916626, "fair_value": 22.357729, "relative_strength": -29.460278, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.490824, "energy": 56.036425, "activity_lines": [ 18.12724, 18.415705, 19.473979, 19.90497 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.5704, "volume": 3515, "typical_volume": 8141.8, "trend": 20.713776, "fair_value": 22.417658, "relative_strength": -27.586456, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.891305, "energy": 45.928386, "activity_lines": [ 18.303453, 18.316273, 19.342729, 19.753601 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.9251, "volume": 3005, "typical_volume": 7934.25, "trend": 20.456026, "fair_value": 22.474034, "relative_strength": -30.223151, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.512173, "energy": 40.356694, "activity_lines": [ 18.236747, 18.171418, 19.158656, 19.573686 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.544001, "volume": 2998, "typical_volume": 7738.8, "trend": 20.203886, "fair_value": 22.533661, "relative_strength": -28.520855, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.786523, "energy": 36.068057, "activity_lines": [ 18.342247, 18.211567, 19.046838, 19.45033 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }