{ "ticker": { "uuid": "14cee76f-a576-40dc-86b7-6d54b04af34a", "symbol": "AYV", "name": "Acma Ltd.", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -87.515, "architecture_energy": 95.571, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 74.538, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.47, "rotation_up": 8.19, "upward_expansion": 22.0, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 88.76, "downward_expansion": 100.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.088467, 0.112, 0.161405, 0.183871 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.074, "trend_reference": 0.2052, "distance_from_trend": -0.639376, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.065128, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.13622, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -52.148297, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.671111, "excess_performance": -0.825946, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.639376, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.165909, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.13622, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -3.264977, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.521483, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.840635, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.671111, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 403300, "relative_activity": 0.429312, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.177292, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.243243, "annualized_volatility": 1.122868, "from_high_reference": -0.827907, "from_low_reference": 2.083333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.2052, "fair_value_reference": 0.065128, "structural_low": 0.074, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.481481, "directional_follow_through": 0.407407, "median_excess_return": 0.003178, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 4.375, "worst_return": -0.222222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.029412, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.019704, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 6.5, "worst_return": -0.277778, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.091071, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.139512, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 6.708333, "worst_return": -0.272727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.044118, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.144845, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 9.208333, "worst_return": -0.218182, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.178571, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.041667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.404255, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04878, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.384615, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.291667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.349593, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.923077, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.233333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.326087, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.119048, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.042, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 17980.0, "trend": 0.039467, "fair_value": 0.0515, "relative_strength": 13.098042, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 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0.226351 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 0.185, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 1290895.0, "trend": 0.187467, "fair_value": 0.061308, "relative_strength": 47.268199, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.308305, "energy": 14.762963, "activity_lines": [ 0.215, 0.235091, 0.242467, 0.22652 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 0.156, "volume": 10800, "typical_volume": 1187390.0, "trend": 0.191867, "fair_value": 0.062019, "relative_strength": 18.555183, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -13.060276, "energy": 27.995599, "activity_lines": [ 0.193333, 0.216273, 0.234581, 0.22449 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 0.155, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1178885.0, "trend": 0.196233, "fair_value": 0.062731, "relative_strength": 16.229066, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.104304, "energy": 48.35909, "activity_lines": [ 0.176267, 0.201255, 0.226952, 0.222112 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.15, "volume": 600, "typical_volume": 1062575.0, "trend": 0.200433, "fair_value": 0.06341, "relative_strength": 9.538035, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.982521, "energy": 68.548184, "activity_lines": [ 0.162533, 0.187964, 0.219181, 0.219129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.121, "volume": 25200, "typical_volume": 1054765.0, "trend": 0.203667, "fair_value": 0.063917, "relative_strength": -16.246675, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -57.677703, "energy": 83.911024, "activity_lines": [ 0.144467, 0.172127, 0.209029, 0.214004 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.1, "volume": 45900, "typical_volume": 939835.0, "trend": 0.206033, "fair_value": 0.064288, "relative_strength": -31.867318, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -63.149829, "energy": 86.426697, "activity_lines": [ 0.126667, 0.155182, 0.197252, 0.207316 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.1, "volume": 40000, "typical_volume": 925080.0, "trend": 0.208333, "fair_value": 0.064654, "relative_strength": -33.373976, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.075754, "energy": 94.53226, "activity_lines": [ 0.114533, 0.140873, 0.186167, 0.200475 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.084, "volume": 177000, "typical_volume": 927750.0, "trend": 0.207033, "fair_value": 0.064923, "relative_strength": -44.757152, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.721611, "energy": 95.970022, "activity_lines": [ 0.1008, 0.126018, 0.174033, 0.192454 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.074, "volume": 403300, "typical_volume": 939410.0, "trend": 0.2052, "fair_value": 0.065128, "relative_strength": -52.148297, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.515334, "energy": 95.570781, "activity_lines": [ 0.088467, 0.112, 0.161405, 0.183871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }