{ "ticker": { "uuid": "14d03288-0a85-4909-9821-6599e755d6e2", "symbol": "METAJ", "name": "Fineco AM MarketVector Global Metaverse and e-Games Sustainable UCITS ETF J Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 68.394, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.932, "architecture_energy": 26.753, "architecture_maturity": 78.289, "architecture_confidence": 72.095, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.31, "rotation_up": 29.37, "upward_expansion": 21.93, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 23.94, "downward_expansion": 58.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 15627.400391, 15554.160174, 15661.707826, 15778.917173 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 15659.740234, "trend_reference": 15916.263151, "distance_from_trend": -0.016117, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13816.585246, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.133402, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.706589, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.030211, "excess_performance": -0.201103, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.016117, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013572, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.133402, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055411, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.167066, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063784, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.030211, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.5, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18, "relative_activity": 12.0, "balance": 1.5, "dry_up": 4.5, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011293, "annualized_volatility": 0.098219, "from_high_reference": -0.153527, "from_low_reference": 0.039904 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15916.263151, "fair_value_reference": 13816.585246, "structural_low": 15058.830078, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.0013, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.018808, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.042958, "worst_return": -0.045558, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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13785.089298, "relative_strength": -14.334816, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.119608, "energy": 46.336159, "activity_lines": [ 15662.603776, 15543.872141, 15714.534268, 15827.848242 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15469.480469, "volume": 9, "typical_volume": 0.6, "trend": 15932.524479, "fair_value": 13800.128505, "relative_strength": -15.729981, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.201972, "energy": 37.984201, "activity_lines": [ 15626.980469, 15525.555274, 15677.446536, 15796.516156 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15659.740234, "volume": 18, "typical_volume": 1.5, "trend": 15916.263151, "fair_value": 13816.585246, "relative_strength": -16.706589, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.932422, "energy": 26.752708, "activity_lines": [ 15627.400391, 15554.160174, 15661.707826, 15778.917173 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }